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Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery

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  • Michael Artis
  • Marianne Sensier

Abstract

This paper applies a business cycle dating algorithm to monthly North West county and local authority district claimant count data to assess turning points in the economic cycle of sub-regions. We date the transition of all districts of the North West into recession beginning in June 2007. By utilising manufacturing and service sector survey information in a logistic regression model we forecast the continuation of the recession for North West region’s employment cycle in the first quarter of 2010. A longer term forecast with the Land Registry’s house price index predicts a transition to an expansion phase in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Artis & Marianne Sensier, 2010. "Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 136, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    • Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:136
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    File URL: https://hummedia.manchester.ac.uk/schools/soss/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr136.pdf
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    1. Jim Taylor & Steve Bradley, 1994. "Spatial Disparities In The Impact Of The 1990–92 Recession: An Analysis Of Uk Counties," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(4), pages 367-382, November.
    2. Owyang, Michael T. & Rapach, David E. & Wall, Howard J., 2009. "States and the business cycle," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 181-194, March.
    3. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.
    4. Sensier, Marianne & Artis, Michael & Osborn, Denise R. & Birchenhall, Chris, 2004. "Domestic and international influences on business cycle regimes in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-357.
    5. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, January.
    6. Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino & Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Dating Business Cycles: A Methodological Contribution with an Application to the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(4), pages 537-565, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marianne Sensier & Michael Artis, 2016. "The Resilience of UK Regional Employment Cycles," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 229, Economics, The University of Manchester.

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