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Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques
[globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]

Author

Listed:
  • knani, ramzi
  • fredj, ali

Abstract

In this work, we are interested in studying the profile synchronization between world economies before and after the concept of globalization and economic integration. Initially, an analysis of features of macroeconomic fluctuations is developed. Two approaches have been developed;the traditional approach and the modern approach. We will use the HP filter to extract the transient components time series considered and the method of Bry and Boschan (1971) for the determination of points reversals and for dating business cycles. In a second step, we will address the issue synchronization. The results show an average timing between the world economies (50%) and highest among economies of similar nature (65%).

Suggested Citation

  • knani, ramzi & fredj, ali, 2010. "Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques
    [globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]
    ," MPRA Paper 22755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22755
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22755/1/MPRA_paper_22755.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
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    5. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2004. "Estimating the Smoothing Parameter in the So-Called Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Discussion Papers in Economics 304, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    7. David E. Giles & Chad N. Stroomer, 2004. "Identifying the Cycle of a Macroeconomic Time-Series Using Fuzzy Filtering," Econometrics Working Papers 0406, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    8. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 59-79, May.
    9. Wecker, William E, 1979. "Predicting the Turning Points of a Time Series," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 35-50, January.
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    13. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
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    16. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1977. "Stabilization of the domestic and international economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-6, January.
    17. Harding, Don, 1997. "The Definition, Dating and Duration of Cycles," MPRA Paper 3357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Harding, Don, 2002. "The Australian Business Cycle: A New View," MPRA Paper 3698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cycles classiques; cycles modernes; filtre HP; datation; synchronisation; intégration économique.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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