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Joint Econometric Modeling of Spot Electricity Prices, Forwards and Options

Author

Listed:
  • Alain Monfort

    (CREST, University of Maastricht)

  • Olivier Féron

    (EDF, FiME)

Abstract

We propose a joint modeling of spot electricity prices , forwards prices and other derivative prices, using recent developments in discrete time asset pricing methods based on the notions of stochastic discount factor and of Compound Autoregressive (or affine) stochastic processes. We show that this approach provides quasi explicit formulae for forward and option prices, while allowing for a large flexilbility in the modeling of dynamics, spikes and seasonality, both in the historical and the risk neutral worlds. We also propose a variety of inference techniques involving inversion methods, the Kalman Filter and the Kitagawa-Hamilton filter. Finally, examples using simulations of spot and forward prices illustrate the large potentialities of our modeling

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Monfort & Olivier Féron, 2011. "Joint Econometric Modeling of Spot Electricity Prices, Forwards and Options," Working Papers 2011-12, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    • Handle: RePEc:crs:wpaper:2011-12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Shaw, Charles, 2020. "Regimes, Non-Linearities, and Price Discontinuities in Indian Energy Stocks," MPRA Paper 104798, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Thomas Deschatre & Olivier F'eron & Pierre Gruet, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Papers 2103.16918, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    4. Shaw, Charles, 2018. "Regime-Switching And Levy Jump Dynamics In Option-Adjusted Spreads," MPRA Paper 94154, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity derivative pricing; spikes; Car processes; stochastic discount factor; Kitagawa-Hamilton filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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