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A hidden Markov regime-switching model for option valuation

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  • Liew, Chuin Ching
  • Siu, Tak Kuen

Abstract

We investigate two approaches, namely, the Esscher transform and the extended Girsanov's principle, for option valuation in a discrete-time hidden Markov regime-switching Gaussian model. The model's parameters including the interest rate, the appreciation rate and the volatility of a risky asset are governed by a discrete-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain whose states represent the hidden states of an economy. We give a recursive filter for the hidden Markov chain and estimates of model parameters using a filter-based EM algorithm. We also derive predictors for the hidden Markov chain and some related quantities. These quantities are used to estimate the price of a standard European call option. Numerical examples based on real financial data are provided to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Liew, Chuin Ching & Siu, Tak Kuen, 2010. "A hidden Markov regime-switching model for option valuation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 374-384, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:47:y:2010:i:3:p:374-384
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Siu, Tak Kuen, 2008. "A game theoretic approach to option valuation under Markovian regime-switching models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1146-1158, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Kun & Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen & Wang, Rongming, 2015. "Valuing commodity options and futures options with changing economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 524-533.
    2. Siu, Tak Kuen, 2016. "A self-exciting threshold jump–diffusion model for option valuation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 168-193.

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