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Asset Pricing Using Trading Volumes in a Hidden Regime-Switching Environment

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  • Robert Elliott
  • Tak Siu

Abstract

By utilizing information about prices and trading volumes, we discuss the pricing of European contingent claims in a continuous-time hidden regime-switching environment. Hidden market sentiments described by the states of a continuous-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain represent a common factor for an asset’s drift and volatility, as well as its trading volumes. Using observations about trading volumes, we present a filtered estimate of the hidden common factor. The asset pricing problem is then considered in a filtered market, where the hidden drift and volatility are replaced by their filtered estimates. We adopt the Esscher transform to select an equivalent martingale measure for pricing and derive a partial-differential integral equation for the option price. Copyright Springer Japan 2015

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  • Robert Elliott & Tak Siu, 2015. "Asset Pricing Using Trading Volumes in a Hidden Regime-Switching Environment," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 22(2), pages 133-149, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:22:y:2015:i:2:p:133-149
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-014-9197-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Godin, Frédéric & Trottier, Denis-Alexandre, 2021. "Option pricing in regime-switching frameworks with the Extended Girsanov Principle," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-129.
    2. Dong-Mei Zhu & Jiejun Lu & Wai-Ki Ching & Tak-Kuen Siu, 2019. "Option Pricing Under a Stochastic Interest Rate and Volatility Model with Hidden Markovian Regime-Switching," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 555-586, February.
    3. Siu, Tak Kuen, 2016. "A self-exciting threshold jump–diffusion model for option valuation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 168-193.

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