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Pricing Annuity Guarantees Under a Regime-Switching Model

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  • X. Lin
  • Ken Tan
  • Hailiang Yang

Abstract

We consider the pricing problem of equity-linked annuities and variable annuities under a regimeswitching model when the dynamic of the market value of a reference asset is driven by a generalized geometric Brownian motion model with regime switching. In particular, we assume that regime switching over time according to a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite number state space representing economy states. We use the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for fair valuation in the incomplete market setting. The paper is complemented with some numerical examples to highlight the implications of our model on pricing these guarantees.

Suggested Citation

  • X. Lin & Ken Tan & Hailiang Yang, 2009. "Pricing Annuity Guarantees Under a Regime-Switching Model," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 316-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:13:y:2009:i:3:p:316-332
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2009.10597557
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam W. Kolkiewicz & Fangyuan Sally Lin, 2017. "Pricing Surrender Risk in Ratchet Equity-Index Annuities under Regime-Switching Lévy Processes," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 433-457, July.
    2. Charles Guy Njike Leunga & Donatien Hainaut, 2022. "Valuation of Annuity Guarantees Under a Self-Exciting Switching Jump Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 963-990, June.
    3. Godin, Frédéric & Trottier, Denis-Alexandre, 2021. "Option pricing in regime-switching frameworks with the Extended Girsanov Principle," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 116-129.
    4. Tak Kuen Siu & Robert J. Elliott, 2019. "Hedging Options In A Doubly Markov-Modulated Financial Market Via Stochastic Flows," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(08), pages 1-41, December.
    5. Romuald Hervé Momeya & Manuel Morales, 2016. "On the Price of Risk of the Underlying Markov Chain in a Regime-Switching Exponential Lévy Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 107-135, March.
    6. Wang, Gu & Zou, Bin, 2021. "Optimal fee structure of variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 587-601.
    7. Fan, Kun & Shen, Yang & Siu, Tak Kuen & Wang, Rongming, 2015. "Pricing annuity guarantees under a double regime-switching model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 62-78.
    8. Godin, Frédéric & Lai, Van Son & Trottier, Denis-Alexandre, 2019. "Option pricing under regime-switching models: Novel approaches removing path-dependence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 130-142.
    9. Liew, Chuin Ching & Siu, Tak Kuen, 2010. "A hidden Markov regime-switching model for option valuation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 374-384, December.
    10. Gan, Guojun, 2013. "Application of data clustering and machine learning in variable annuity valuation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 795-801.
    11. Olivier Le Courtois & François Quittard-Pinon & Xiaoshan Su, 2020. "Pricing and hedging defaultable participating contracts with regime switching and jump risk," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 43(1), pages 303-339, June.
    12. Yuanchuang Shan & Huisheng Shu & Haoran Yi, 2023. "Pricing Equity-Indexed Annuities under a Stochastic Dividend Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-12, January.
    13. Huang, H. & Milevsky, M.A. & Salisbury, T.S., 2014. "Optimal initiation of a GLWB in a variable annuity: No Arbitrage approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 102-111.
    14. Frédéric Godiny & Van Son Lai & Denis-Alexandre Trottier, 2019. "Option Pricing Under Regime-Switching Models: Novel Approaches Removing Path-Dependence," Working Papers 2019-014, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    15. Denis-Alexandre Trottier & Frédéric Godin & Emmanuel Hamel, 2018. "On Fund Mapping Regressions Applied to Segregated Funds Hedging Under Regime-Switching Dynamics," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-15, August.
    16. Gan, Guojun & Lin, X. Sheldon, 2015. "Valuation of large variable annuity portfolios under nested simulation: A functional data approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 138-150.
    17. Wang, Guanqing & Wang, Guojing & Yang, Hailiang, 2016. "On a multi-dimensional risk model with regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 73-83.
    18. Bernard, Carole & Kwak, Minsuk, 2016. "Semi-static hedging of variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 173-186.
    19. Forsyth, Peter & Vetzal, Kenneth, 2014. "An optimal stochastic control framework for determining the cost of hedging of variable annuities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 29-53.
    20. Yayun Wang, 2023. "Pricing a Specific Equity Index Annuity in a Regime-Switching Lévy Model with Jump," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(3), pages 1115-1135, March.
    21. Moenig, Thorsten, 2021. "Variable annuities: Market incompleteness and policyholder behavior," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 63-78.
    22. Liang, Xue & Wang, Guojing, 2012. "On a reduced form credit risk model with common shock and regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 567-575.

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