IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v53y2013i3p795-801.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of data clustering and machine learning in variable annuity valuation

Author

Listed:
  • Gan, Guojun

Abstract

The valuation of variable annuity guarantees has been studied extensively in the past four decades. However, almost all the studies focus on the valuation of guarantees embedded in a single variable annuity contract. How to efficiently price the guarantees for a large portfolio of variable annuity contracts has not received enough attention. This paper fills the gap by introducing a novel method based on data clustering and machine learning to price the guarantees for a large portfolio of variable annuity contracts. Our test results show that this method performs very well in terms of accuracy and speed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gan, Guojun, 2013. "Application of data clustering and machine learning in variable annuity valuation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 795-801.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:53:y:2013:i:3:p:795-801
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2013.09.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668713001546
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kijima, Masaaki & Wong, Tony, 2007. "Pricing of Ratchet equity-indexed annuities under stochastic interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 317-338, November.
    2. Costabile, Massimo & Gaudenzi, Marcellino & Massabò, Ivar & Zanette, Antonino, 2009. "Evaluating fair premiums of equity-linked policies with surrender option in a bivariate model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 286-295, October.
    3. Cheung, Ka Chun & Yang, Hailiang, 2005. "Optimal stopping behavior of equity-linked investment products with regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 599-614, December.
    4. Aase Nielsen, J. & Sandmann, Klaus, 1995. "Equity-linked life insurance: A model with stochastic interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 225-253, July.
    5. Bacinello, Anna Rita & Ortu, Fulvio, 1993. "Pricing equity-linked life insurance with endogenous minimum guarantees," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 245-257, June.
    6. Lee, Hangsuck, 2003. "Pricing equity-indexed annuities with path-dependent options," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 677-690, December.
    7. A. C. Belanger & P. A. Forsyth & G. Labahn, 2009. "Valuing the Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit Clause with Partial Withdrawals," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 451-496.
    8. Bacinello, Anna Rita, 2005. "Endogenous model of surrender conditions in equity-linked life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 270-296, October.
    9. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Salisbury, Thomas S., 2006. "Financial valuation of guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 21-38, February.
    10. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1976. "The pricing of equity-linked life insurance policies with an asset value guarantee," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 195-213, June.
    11. Windcliff, H. & Forsyth, P. A. & Vetzal, K. R., 2001. "Valuation of segregated funds: shout options with maturity extensions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-21, August.
    12. Charupat, Narat & Milevsky, Moshe A., 2002. "Optimal asset allocation in life annuities: a note," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 199-209, April.
    13. Anna Rita Bacinello, 2003. "Fair Valuation of a Guaranteed Life Insurance Participating Contract Embedding a Surrender Option," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 461-487.
    14. Bacinello, Anna Rita & Millossovich, Pietro & Olivieri, Annamaria & Pitacco, Ermanno, 2011. "Variable annuities: A unifying valuation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 285-297.
    15. Ko, Bangwon & Shiu, Elias S.W. & Wei, Li, 2010. "Pricing maturity guarantee with dynamic withdrawal benefit," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 216-223, October.
    16. Costabile, Massimo & Massabó, Ivar & Russo, Emilio, 2008. "A binomial model for valuing equity-linked policies embedding surrender options," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 873-886, June.
    17. Consiglio, Andrea & De Giovanni, Domenico, 2008. "Evaluation of insurance products with guarantee in incomplete markets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 332-342, February.
    18. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    19. Steinar Ekern & Svein-Arne Persson, 1996. "Exotic Unit-Linked Life Insurance Contracts," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 21(1), pages 35-63, June.
    20. Jacques, Michel, 2003. "A risk management approach to the pricing of a single equity-linked contract," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(02), pages 159-179, July.
    21. Armstrong, Michael J., 2001. "The reset decision for segregated fund maturity guarantees," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-269, October.
    22. Ng, Andrew Cheuk-Yin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2011. "Valuing variable annuity guarantees with the multivariate Esscher transform," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 393-400.
    23. Qian, Linyi & Wang, Wei & Wang, Rongming & Tang, Yincai, 2010. "Valuation of equity-indexed annuity under stochastic mortality and interest rate," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 123-129, October.
    24. Yang, Sharon S. & Dai, Tian-Shyr, 2013. "A flexible tree for evaluating guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits under deferred life annuity contracts with various provisions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 231-242.
    25. Li, Jing & Szimayer, Alexander, 2011. "The uncertain mortality intensity framework: Pricing and hedging unit-linked life insurance contracts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 471-486.
    26. Gerber, Hans U. & Shiu, Elias S.W. & Yang, Hailiang, 2012. "Valuing equity-linked death benefits and other contingent options: A discounted density approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 73-92.
    27. Wang, Yumin, 2009. "Quantile hedging for guaranteed minimum death benefits," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 449-458, December.
    28. Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December.
    29. Min Dai & Yue Kuen Kwok & Jianping Zong, 2008. "Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit In Variable Annuities," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 595-611.
    30. Gao, Jin & Ulm, Eric R., 2012. "Optimal consumption and allocation in variable annuities with Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 586-598.
    31. Bauer, Daniel & Kling, Alexander & Russ, Jochen, 2008. "A Universal Pricing Framework for Guaranteed Minimum Benefits in Variable Annuities," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 621-651, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Seyed Amir Hejazi & Kenneth R. Jackson, 2016. "A Neural Network Approach to Efficient Valuation of Large Portfolios of Variable Annuities," Papers 1606.07831, arXiv.org.
    2. Seyed Amir Hejazi & Kenneth R. Jackson & Guojun Gan, 2017. "A Spatial Interpolation Framework for Efficient Valuation of Large Portfolios of Variable Annuities," Papers 1701.04134, arXiv.org.
    3. Seyed Amir Hejazi & Kenneth R. Jackson, 2016. "Efficient Valuation of SCR via a Neural Network Approach," Papers 1610.01946, arXiv.org.
    4. Hejazi, Seyed Amir & Jackson, Kenneth R., 2016. "A neural network approach to efficient valuation of large portfolios of variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 169-181.
    5. Huang, H. & Milevsky, M.A. & Salisbury, T.S., 2014. "Optimal initiation of a GLWB in a variable annuity: No Arbitrage approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 102-111.
    6. repec:eee:dyncon:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gan, Guojun & Lin, X. Sheldon, 2015. "Valuation of large variable annuity portfolios under nested simulation: A functional data approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 138-150.
    8. repec:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:3:p:71-:d:157549 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:insuma:v:76:y:2017:i:c:p:118-134 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:53:y:2013:i:3:p:795-801. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.