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Were Oil Price Markets the Source of Credit Crisis in European Countries? Evidence Using a VAR-MGARCH-DCC Model

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  • Nadhem Selmi

    (Department of Quantitative Methods, Faculty of Economics and Management of Sfax Tunisia.)

  • Nejib Hachicha

    (Department of Quantitative Methods, Faculty of Economics and Management of Sfax Tunisia.)

Abstract

This paper examines the role of oil prices, credit, financial and commercial linkages in the propagation of industrial market crises during the period 2004-2012. Using VAR-MGARCH-DCC model regressions on seven markets finds that credit linkage played a significant role in the subprime, financial and global crises. Our results also show that the European debt crisis has already spread like a crisis from oil prices to Ireland and Portugal, and other countries are now at risk: Spain is a probable candidate for financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadhem Selmi & Nejib Hachicha, 2014. "Were Oil Price Markets the Source of Credit Crisis in European Countries? Evidence Using a VAR-MGARCH-DCC Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 169-177.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2014-02-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tanattrin Bunnag, 2015. "Hedging Petroleum Futures with Multivariate GARCH Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 105-120.
    2. Mohamed Osman, 2015. "Dynamic Asymmetries in the Electric Consumption of the GCC Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 461-467.
    3. Tanattrin Bunnag, 2016. "Volatility Transmission in Crude Oil, Gold, Standard and Poor s 500 and US Dollar Index Futures using Vector Autoregressive Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 39-52.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Contagion; Crisis; VAR-MGARCH-DCC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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