High real interest rates in the aftermath of disinflation: is it a lack of credibility?
High real interest rates have been observed in many countries for several months after the adoption of disinflation programs. While they may reflect primarily a liquidity crunch, high ex post real interest rates can also be explained in terms of an ex post error in inflation expectations that reflects a lack of credibility of the low-inflation policy. The latter hypothesis is tested using data for Argentina, Israel, and Mexico during the implementation of the stabilization programs in the mid-1980s.
|Date of creation:||1996|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/order.htm|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Kaminsky, Graciela L., 1991. "Debt relief and debt rescheduling : The optimal-contract approach," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 5-36, July.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1986.
"Stopping hyperinflations past and present,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 1-47, March.
- Hoe E. Khor & Liliana Rojas-Suarez, 1991.
"Interest Rates in Mexico: The Role of Exchange Rate Expectations and International Creditworthiness,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 850-871, December.
- Hoe Ee Khor & Liliana Rojas-SuÃ¡rez, 1991. "Interest Rates in Mexico: The Role of Exchange Rate Expectations and International Creditworthiness," IMF Working Papers 91/12, International Monetary Fund.
- Karen K. Lewis & Martin D. Evans, 1992.
"Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?,"
NBER Working Papers
4134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?," Working Papers 92-22, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
- Carlos A. VÃ©gh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
- Rudiger Dornbusch & Juan Carlos de Pablo, 1989. "Debt and Macroeconomic Instability in Argentina," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 37-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995.
"Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rebelo, Sérgio, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," CEPR Discussion Papers 1220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Working Papers 5197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rebelo, S. & Vegh, C.A., 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," RCER Working Papers 405, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Leiderman, Leonardo, 1993. "Inflation and Disinflation," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226471105.
- Cukierman, A. & Liviatan, N., 1991.
"The Dynamics of Optimal Gradual Stabilizations,"
34-91, Tel Aviv.
- Calvo, Guillermo A, 1992. "Are High Interest Rates Effective for Stopping High Inflation? Some Skeptical Notes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(1), pages 55-69, January.
- Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995. "Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:543. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kris Vajs)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.