IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v43y2022i2p239-261.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier

Author

Listed:
  • Bertrand Rioux
  • Abdullah Al Jarboua
  • Fatih Karanfil
  • Axel Pierru
  • Shahd Al Rashed
  • Colin Ward

Abstract

Structural changes in the oil market, such as the rise of tight oil, are impacting conventional market dynamics and incentives for producers to cooperate. What if OPEC stopped organizing residual production collectively? We develop an equilibrium model to simulate a competitive world oil market from 2020 to 2030.It includes detailed conventional and unconventional oil supplies and financial investment constraints. Our competitive market scenarios indicate that oil prices first decline and tend to recover to reference residual supplier scenario levels by 2030. In a competitive oil market, a reduction in the financial resources made available to the global upstream oil sector leads to increased revenues for low-cost producers such as Saudi Arabia. Compared to the competitive scenario, Saudi Arabia does not benefit from acting alone as a residual supplier, but, under some assumptions, it benefits from being part of a larger group that works collectively as a residual supplier.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Rioux & Abdullah Al Jarboua & Fatih Karanfil & Axel Pierru & Shahd Al Rashed & Colin Ward, 2022. "Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(2), pages 239-261, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:2:p:239-261
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.2.brio
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.43.2.brio
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.43.2.brio?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Jason P. & Maniloff, Peter & Manning, Dale T., 2020. "Spatially variable taxation and resource extraction: The impact of state oil taxes on drilling in the US," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    2. Golombek, Rolf & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Ma, Lin, 2018. "OPEC's market power: An empirical dominant firm model for the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 98-115.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrade de Sá, Saraly & Daubanes, Julien, 2016. "Limit pricing and the (in)effectiveness of the carbon tax," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-39.
    2. Sun, Xiaohua & Ren, Junlin & Wang, Yun, 2022. "The impact of resource taxation on resource curse: Evidence from Chinese resource tax policy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Di Nino, Virginia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2022. "Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    4. Bergholt, Drago & Røisland, Øistein & Sveen, Tommy & Torvik, Ragnar, 2023. "Monetary policy when export revenues drop," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Giacomo Benini & Adam Brandt & Valerio Dotti & Hassan El-Houjeiri, 2023. "The Economic and Environmental Consequences of the Petroleum Industry Extensive Margin," Working Papers 2023:14, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    6. Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen & Peter Birch Sørensen, 2021. "Opimal Unilateral Climate Policy with Carbon Leakage at the Extensive and the Intensive Margin," CESifo Working Paper Series 9185, CESifo.
    7. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Lahiani, Amine & Mefteh-Wali, Salma, 2022. "An analysis of OPEC oil production reaction to non-OPEC oil supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Yue Liu & Hao Dong & Pierre Failler, 2019. "The Oil Market Reactions to OPEC’s Announcements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-15, August.
    9. Berk, Istemi & Çam , Eren, 2019. "The Shift in Global Crude Oil Market Structure: A model-based analysis of the period 2013–2017," EWI Working Papers 2019-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    10. Refk Selmi & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Mark E. Wohar, 2023. "What drives most jumps in global crude oil prices? Fundamental shortage conditions, cartel, geopolitics or the behaviour of financial market participants," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 598-618, March.
    11. Abdel-Latif, Hany & El-Gamal, Mahmoud, 2020. "Financial liquidity, geopolitics, and oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Zhu, Xuehong & Zheng, Weihang & Zhang, Hongwei & Guo, Yaoqi, 2019. "Time-varying international market power for the Chinese iron ore markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Berthod, Mathias & Benchekroun, Hassan, 2019. "On agreements in a nonrenewable resource market: A cooperative differential game approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 23-39.
    14. Antelo, Manel & Bru, Lluís, 2021. "Intrapersonal price discrimination in a dominant firm model," MPRA Paper 108412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Even Comfort Hvinden, 2019. "OPEC's crude game," Working Papers No 10/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Storrøsten, Halvor Briseid, 2024. "U.S. light tight oil supply flexibility - A multivariate dynamic model for production and rig activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    17. Daniel Raimi & Emily Grubert & Jake Higdon & Gilbert Metcalf & Sophie Pesek & Devyani Singh, 2023. "The Fiscal Implications of the US Transition Away from Fossil Fuels," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 295-315.
    18. C.R. BISHNOI & Apeksha SHARMA, 2022. "An econometric approach to analyse the perceived cartel behaviour of OPEC," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(632), A), pages 27-42, Autumn.
    19. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "Modeling world oil market questions: An economic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    20. Musa Abdu & Adamu Jibir, 2019. "Sources of Market Power among Firms in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do Institutions Matter in Competitive Policies?," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 115-148, July-Dec.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Competitive Oil Market; Residual Supplier; Tight Oil; OPEC; Saudi Arabia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:2:p:239-261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.