Energy Prices and Real Economic Activity in Canada: A Multi-Sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis
As a net exporter of oil, the recent upward trend in the world prices of energy products represents both an opportunity and a challenge for Canada. This study investigates the aggregate and sectoral effects of a sustained increase in these prices on the Canadian economy using a multi-sector forward-looking dynamic general equilibrium model. Counterfactual simulation results suggest that these price shocks would be beneficial to the Canadian economy on an aggregate basis, as real GDP would increase during most periods and households would increase their consumption profile during all periods and would thereby improve their well being. Nevertheless, the price increases would also shift resources toward export booming sectors and would lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate that would not be beneficial to traditional manufacturing export industries.
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