The 1929 Stock Market: Irving Fisher Was Right
Many stock market analysts think that in 1929, at the time of the crash, stocks were overvalued. Irving Fisher argued just before the crash that fundamentals were strong and the stock market was undervalued. In this article, we use growth theory to estimate the fundamental value of corporate equity and compare it to actual stock valuations. Our estimate is based on values of productive corporate capital, both tangible and intangible, and tax rates on corporate income and distributions. The evidence strongly suggests that Fisher was right. Even at the 1929 peak, stocks were undervalued relative to the prediction of theory. Copyright 2004 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 45 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 160 McNeil Building, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297|
Phone: (215) 898-8487
Fax: (215) 573-2057
Web page: http://www.econ.upenn.edu/ier
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0020-6598 Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2001.
"Liquidity Effects in the Bond Market,"
NBER Working Papers
8597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2001. "Liquidity Effects in the Bond Market," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0117, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001.
"Valuation Ratios and the Long-run Stock Market Outlook: An Update,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1295, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2000.
"Is the stock market overvalued?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 20-40.
- Dominguez, Kathryn M & Fair, Ray C & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1988.
"Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 595-612, September.
- Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale," NBER Working Papers 2095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 808, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 1989.
"Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investments in Bullocks in India,"
7487, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
- Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-44, April.
- Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
- Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995.
"Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-57, December.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Guglielmo Weber, 1994. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," NBER Working Papers 4795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ellen R. McGrattan, 1991.
"The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
37, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- McGrattan, Ellen R., 1994. "The macroeconomic effects of distortionary taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 573-601, June.
- Browning, Martin & Hansen, Lars Peter & Heckman, James J., 1999.
"Micro data and general equilibrium models,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 543-633
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
- Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
- Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:45:y:2004:i:4:p:991-1009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.