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Markov Switching In-Mean Effect. Bayesian Analysis in Stochastic Volatility Framework

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  • Łukasz Kwiatkowski

    () (Cracow University of Economics)

Abstract

In the study we introduce an extension to a stochastic volatility in mean model (SV-M), allowing for discrete regime switches in the risk premium parameter. The logic behind the idea is that neglecting a possibly regimechanging nature of the relation between the current volatility (conditional standard deviation) and asset return within an ordinary SV-M specification may lead to spurious insignificance of the risk premium parameter (as being 'averaged out' over the regimes). Therefore, we allow the volatility in-mean effect to switch over different regimes according to a discrete homogeneous twostate Markov chain. We treat the new specification within the Bayesian framework, which allows to fully account for the uncertainty of model parameters, latent conditional variances and hidden Markov chain state variables. Standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, including the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, are adapted to estimate the model and to obtain predictive densities of selected quantities. Presented methodology is applied to analyse series of the Warsaw Stock Exchange index (WIG) and its sectoral subindices. Although rare, once spotted the switching inmean effect substantially enhances the model fit to the data, as measured by the value of the marginal data density.

Suggested Citation

  • Łukasz Kwiatkowski, 2010. "Markov Switching In-Mean Effect. Bayesian Analysis in Stochastic Volatility Framework," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(1), pages 59-94, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:1:y:2010:i:4:p:59-94
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2015. "The International Transmission Of Volatility Shocks: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 512-533, June.
    2. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:4:y:2016:i:1:p:16:d:65689 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Haroon Mumtaz, 2016. "The Evolving Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the United Kingdom," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov switching; stochastic volatility; risk premium; in-mean effect; Bayesian analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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