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Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest after COVID-19

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Abstract

We modify the Laubach-Williams and Holston-Laubach-Williams models of the natural rate of interest to account for time-varying volatility and a persistent COVID supply shock during the pandemic. Resulting estimates of the natural rate of interest in the United States, Canada, and the Euro Area at the end of 2022 are close to their respective levels estimated directly before the pandemic; that is, we do not find evidence that the era of historically low estimated natural rates of interest has ended. In contrast, estimates of the natural rate of output have declined relative to those projected before the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn Holston & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2023. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest after COVID-19," Staff Reports 1063, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:96351
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Segura-Rodriguez, 2024. "Natural Real Interest Rate in an Open Small Economy: the Costa Rica´s Case," Notas Técnicas 2403, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    2. Bielecki, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Błażejowska, Aneta & Kuziemska-Pawlak, Kamila & Szafrański, Grzegorz, . "Szacunki i projekcje naturalnej stopy procentowej dla Polski i strefy euro," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2024(3).
    3. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Galesi, Alessandro & Peña, Rodrigo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sentana, Enrique, 2026. "Unobservable No More: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest under Flat IS and Phillips Curves," CEPR Discussion Papers 21256, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Robbins, Jacob A., 2026. "Expectation traps and Neo-Fisherian policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    5. Osoro, Jared & Talam, Camilla, 2025. "Monetary policy at the turn of financial markets: A forerunner or follower?," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 89, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    6. Kamber, Güneş & Morley, James & Wong, Benjamin, 2025. "Trend-cycle decomposition in the presence of large shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    7. Pál, Tibor & Storti, Giuseppe, 2025. "Estimating the R-Star in the US: A Score-Driven State-Space Model with Time-Varying Volatility Persistence," MPRA Paper 125338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jagjit S. Chadha, 2023. "Mr Putin and the Chronicle of a Normalisation Foretold," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 551, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    9. Buncic, Daniel, 2024. "Econometric issues in the estimation of the natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Bajaro, Donna Faye E. & Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2025. "Monetary policy under fiscal stress: A forward-looking analysis of fiscal dominance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    11. Carlos Segura-Rodriguez & David Ching-Vindas, 2025. "Growt-at-risk in Costa Rica: an Open and Small Economy Perspective," Documentos de Trabajo 2501, Banco Central de Costa Rica.
    12. Tayler, William J. & Zilberman, Roy, 2024. "Unconventional policies in state-dependent liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    13. Hasui, Kohei & Sugo, Tomohiro & Teranishi, Yuki, 2026. "Liquidity trap and optimal monetary policy: Evaluations for U.S. monetary policy from 2020 to 2023," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    14. Naima Lassoued & Imen Khanchel & Imen Fakhfakh, 2026. "Does every cloud have a silver lining?The effect of digitalization and government measures on bank efficiency during the pandemic," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 1-40, December.
    15. Chaimae Lazzarou, 2026. "Measuring Natural Interest Rate in Morocco," IHEID Working Papers 01-2026, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    16. Segura-Rodriguez, Carlos, 2026. "Neutral real interest rate in an open and small economy: The case of Costa Rica," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 7(2).
    17. Júlio, Paulo & Maria, José R., 2024. "Trends and cycles during the COVID-19 pandemic period," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. Kempa, Bernd & Zou, Feina, 2026. "Estimation of the natural interest rate under monetary policy smoothing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Arden, Lucas & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2025. "Inflation-stabilizing monetary and fiscal policy rules at and away from the lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    20. Bofinger, Peter & Haas, Thomas, 2023. "R-Star: A new approach to estimate the polar star of monetary policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 18420, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    21. Atanas Pekanov, 2025. "Europäische Wirtschaftspolitik 2024. Zwischen externen Schocks, strukturellen Problemen und der Notwendigkeit eines Produktivitätsschubs," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 98(3), pages 123-135, March.
    22. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    23. Votinov, A. & Polshchikova, Yu., 2025. "Relationship between the neutral interest rate and the parameters of the fiscal rule: DSGE-model of the Russian economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 160-187.
    24. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Aneta Błażejowska & Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2024. "Estimates and Projections of the Natural Rate of Interest for Poland and the Euro Area," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 1-32.
    25. Carlos Segura-Rodriguez, 2026. "An open economy model for estimating non-observable variables for Costa Rica," Documentos de Trabajo 2604, Banco Central de Costa Rica.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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