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Szacunki i projekcje naturalnej stopy procentowej dla Polski i strefy euro

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  • Bielecki, Marcin
  • Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał
  • Błażejowska, Aneta
  • Kuziemska-Pawlak, Kamila
  • Szafrański, Grzegorz

Abstract

We use a wide range of models (time series, semi-structural and structural) to estimate, project and explain the evolution of the natural rate of interest (NRI) in Poland (PL) and in the euro area (EA). Our findings are as follows: (i) the NRIs declined significantly in both PL and the EA over the last two decades, (ii) our most recent short-term estimates point towards a mildly negative NRI in PL and appreciably more negative NRI in the EA, (iii) our most recent medium-term estimates point towards a mildly positive NRI in PL and a slightly negative NRI in the EA, (iv) the NRI in PL remained consistently above the NRI in the EA by an average of 2–3 pp, (v) the main drivers of the declining NRIs were demographics and the worldwide productivity slowdown, (vi) the main driver of the higher NRI in PL than in the EA was the productivity catch-up in PL, (vii) we expect the NRI in PL to significantly converge to the EA level by the mid-2030s.

Suggested Citation

  • Bielecki, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Błażejowska, Aneta & Kuziemska-Pawlak, Kamila & Szafrański, Grzegorz, 2024. "Szacunki i projekcje naturalnej stopy procentowej dla Polski i strefy euro," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2024(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:361237
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.361237
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