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Global real rates: a secular approach

Author

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  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
  • Hélène Rey

Abstract

The current environment is characterized by low real rates and by policy rates close to or at their effective lower bound in all major €nancial areas. We analyze these unusual economic conditions from a secular perspective using data on aggregate consumption, wealth and asset returns. Our present-value approach decomposes fluctuations in the global consumption-to-wealth ratio over long periods of time and show that this ratio anticipates future movements of the global real risk-free rate. Our analysis identifies two historical episodes where the consumption-to-wealth ratio declined rapidly below its historical average: in the roaring 1920s and again in the exuberant 2000s. Each episode was followed by a severe global €financial crisis and depressed real rates for an extended period of time. Our empirical estimates suggest that the world real rate of interest is likely to remain low or negative for an extended period of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2019. "Global real rates: a secular approach," BIS Working Papers 793, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:793
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2018. "Stagnation Traps," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1425-1470.
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    4. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 47-87, September.
    5. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_036 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Tobias Adrian & Fernando M. Duarte, 2016. "Financial vulnerability and monetary policy," Staff Reports 804, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    8. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-1966, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. What's in store for r*?
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2020-11-24 13:15:29

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Knolle, Julia, 2020. "Prosperity in a Low Interest Environment," MPRA Paper 104332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Andrey Sinyakov & Alexey Porshakov, 2019. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest for Russia: Is ‘Navigating by the Stars’ Useful?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(4), pages 3-47, December.
    4. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
    5. Corina-Florentina Scarlat (Mihai), 2022. "The Evolution And Sustainability Of Public Debt In The E.U. Member States," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 3, pages 115-127, June.
    6. Thomas Mayer & Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "Reasons for the Demise of Interest: Savings Glut and Secular Stagnation or Central Bank Policy?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7954, CESifo.
    7. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2022. "Global natural projections," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 949-990, November.
    9. Dmitriy Stolyarov & Linda L. Tesar, 2019. "Interest Rate Trends in a Global Context," Working Papers wp402, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    10. Kathryn Holston & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2023. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest after COVID-19," Staff Reports 1063, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Fernandez-Gallardo, Alvaro, 2023. "Preventing financial disasters: Macroprudential policy and financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real interest rates; consumption-wealth ratio; financial boom-bust cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General

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