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Interest rate trends in a global context

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  • Stolyarov, Dmitriy
  • Tesar, Linda L.

Abstract

Long-term interest rates have been falling globally since the early 1980s and have reached historically low levels. Past forecasts largely missed this secular decline. This paper reviews methodologies for making long-term interest rate projections. We synthesize results from studies that use long historical series and cross-country data to estimate the trend and decompose it into components. We then construct a set of economic indicators that are potentially useful in interest rate forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Stolyarov, Dmitriy & Tesar, Linda L., 2021. "Interest rate trends in a global context," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:101:y:2021:i:c:s0264999321001218
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105532
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    1. Venetis, Ioannis & Ladas, Avgoustinos, 2022. "Co-movement and global factors in sovereign bond yields," MPRA Paper 115801, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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