IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v157y2026ics0304393225001291.html

The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors

Author

Listed:
  • Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai
  • Winkler, Fabian

Abstract

We propose a novel explanation for persistent movements in the natural rate of interest, or r-star, based on a model of two-sided learning between the central bank and the private sector. Each side has some information about r-star fundamentals and also learns from observing output, inflation and interest rates. When both sides fail to recognise that their actions influence the other’s beliefs, a “hall-of-mirrors” effect arises that causes persistent shifts in r-star in response to cyclical shocks. The model can explain the post-2008 decline in r-star without changes in long-run fundamentals, as well as the excess sensitivity of long-term yields to monetary policy surprises and the underreaction of interest rate forecasts. Aggressive policy easing designed to counter a recession can inadvertently lower r-star and endogenously narrow policy space.

Suggested Citation

  • Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai & Winkler, Fabian, 2026. "The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:157:y:2026:i:c:s0304393225001291
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103858
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393225001291
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103858?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acosta, Miguel & Brennan, Connor M. & Jacobson, Margaret M., 2024. "Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    2. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2008. "Learning, expectations formation, and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(Supplemen), pages 80-96, October.
    3. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2006. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policy-Makers' Beliefs and U. S. Postwar Stabilization Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 867-901.
    4. Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008. "Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1389-1400, November.
    5. Roberto M. Billi, 2011. "Optimal Inflation for the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 29-52, July.
    6. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 47-87, September.
    7. Paul Beaudry & Césaire Meh, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Trends in Real Interest Rates and Depressed Demand," Staff Working Papers 21-27, Bank of Canada.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
    9. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat Author-X-Name_First: Piti, 2019. "Monetary policy hysteresis and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 817, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Angeletos, George-Marios & Iovino, Luigi & La'O, Jennifer, 2020. "Learning over the business cycle: Policy implications," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    11. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    13. Cukierman, Alex & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "Endogenous monetary policy with unobserved potential output," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1951-1983, November.
    14. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
    15. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2015. "Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 549-585, March.
    16. Sebastian Hillenbrand, 2025. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 38(4), pages 981-1013.
    17. Alexandre N. Kohlhas, 2022. "Learning by Sharing: Monetary Policy and Common Knowledge," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 324-364, July.
    18. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    19. Kurt G. Lunsford & Kenneth D. West, 2019. "Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of US Safe Real Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 113-139, October.
    20. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    21. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    22. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Winkler, Fabian, 2022. "Learning and misperception of makeup strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    23. Orphanides, Athanasios & Williams, John C., 2007. "Robust monetary policy with imperfect knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1406-1435, July.
    24. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
    25. Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes, 2015. "Calculating the Natural Rate of Interest: A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Oct.
    26. George-Marios Angeletos & Jennifer La’O, 2020. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Informational Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(3), pages 1027-1064.
    27. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    28. Jenny Chan, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations," Discussion Papers 2020, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    29. Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf & Fan Dora Xia, 2023. "Explaining Monetary Spillovers: The Matrix Reloaded," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(6), pages 1535-1568, September.
    30. Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    31. Chan, Jenny, 2024. "Monetary policy and sentiment-driven fluctuations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    32. Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai & Winkler, Fabian, 2026. "The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    33. Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 853-884.
    34. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    35. Matthes, Christian & Rondina, Francesca, 2017. "Two-sided learning and short-run dynamics in a New Keynesian model of the economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 53-56.
    36. Jenny Chan, 2024. "Monetary policy and sentiment-driven fluctuations," Bank of England working papers 1106, Bank of England.
    37. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2353-2392, July.
    38. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    39. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    40. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2017. "Why so low for so long? A long-term view of real interest rates," BIS Working Papers 685, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Melissa van Rensburg, 2023. "Long-run trends in New Zealand’s real neutral interest rate," Treasury Analytical Notes Series an23/05, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Gianluca Benigno & Boris Hofmann & Galo Nuño Barrau & Damiano Sandri, 2024. "Quo vadis, r*? The natural rate of interest after the pandemic," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    4. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "On the international co-movement of natural interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Ivan Todorov, 2025. "Еconomic Policy Under Global Flight to Safe Assets and Effective Lower Bound: the Bulgarian Prospects," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 1200-1218, Desember.
    6. Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai & Winkler, Fabian, 2026. "The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    7. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Back to the Future: Intellectual Challenges for Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 273-287, December.
    8. Agustin G. Carstens, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Luncheon Address: A Story of Tailwinds and Headwinds: Aggregate Supply and Macroeconomic Stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    9. Garabedian, Garo, 2025. "Star-struck; Monetary Policy and the Neutral Rate," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Grishchenko, V. & Sinyakov, A., 2024. "Demography and equilibrium interest rates: Competing approaches and evidence from Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 229-239.
    11. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    2. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News 1," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-05481635, HAL.
    3. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    5. Maciej Stefański, 2023. "Natural Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy with Application to CEE Countries," KAE Working Papers 2023-093, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    6. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 13, pages 1-34.
    8. Danilo Leiva-León & Rodrigo Sekkel & Luis Uzeda, 2026. "Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect the Neutral Rate of Interest?," Working Papers 26-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Zhengyang Chen, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," 2019 Papers pch1858, Job Market Papers.
    10. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2025. "Estimating the natural rate of interest in a macro-finance yield curve model," Working Paper Series 3160, European Central Bank.
    11. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Martínez-García, Enrique, 2021. "Get the lowdown: The international side of the fall in the U.S. natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.
    14. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    15. Michael D Bauer & Carolin E Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2024. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2227-2278.
    16. Michael T. Kiley, 2024. "Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    18. De Santis, Roberto A. & Tornese, Tommaso, 2024. "US monetary policy is more powerful in low economic growth regimes," Working Paper Series 2919, European Central Bank.
    19. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
    20. Huo, Zhen & Pedroni, Marcelo, 2023. "Dynamic information aggregation: Learning from the past," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 107-124.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:157:y:2026:i:c:s0304393225001291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.