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Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures

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  • Acosta, Miguel
  • Brennan, Connor M.
  • Jacobson, Margaret M.

Abstract

Eurodollar futures were the bedrock for constructing high-frequency series of monetary policy surprises, so their discontinuation poses a challenge for the continued empirical study of monetary policy. We propose an approach for updating the series of Gürkaynak, Sack, and Swanson (2005) and Nakamura and Steinsson (2018) with SOFR futures in place of Eurodollar futures that is conceptually and materially consistent. We recommend using SOFR futures from January 2022 onward based on regulatory developments and trading volumes. The updated series suggest that surprises over the recent tightening cycle are larger in magnitude than those seen over the decade prior and restrictive on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Acosta, Miguel & Brennan, Connor M. & Jacobson, Margaret M., 2024. "Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:242:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524003574
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111873
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    1. Erik Heitfield & Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Inferring Term Rates from SOFR Futures Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    3. Brennan Connor M. & Jacobson Margaret M. & Matthes Christian & Walker Todd B., 2025. "Monetary Policy Shocks: Data or Methods?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 595-659.
    4. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ho, Cheuk Yin, 2025. "Do sticky prices or sticky wages matter for monetary non-neutrality?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    4. Xudong An & Saket Hegde & Harren Jan & Mete Kilic & Rodney Ramcharan, 2025. "The Fed Put and Bank Risk-Taking Evidence from the Loan Book," Working Papers 25-42, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Dimitris Korobilis, 2025. "Exploring Monetary Policy Shocks with Large-Scale Bayesian VARs," Working Papers No 05/2025, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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