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Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures

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Abstract

Eurodollar futures were the bedrock for constructing high-frequency series of monetary policy surprises, so their discontinuation poses a challenge for the continued empirical study of monetary policy. We propose an approach for updating the series of Gurkaynak et al. (2005) and Nakamura and Steinsson (2018) with SOFR futures in place of Eurodollar futures that is conceptually and materially consistent. We recommend using SOFR futures from January 2022 onward based on regulatory developments and trading volumes. The updatedseries suggest that surprises over the recent tightening cycle are larger in magnitude than those seen over the decade prior and restrictive on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Acosta & Connor M. Brennan & Margaret M. Jacobson, 2024. "Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-34
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.034
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    Keywords

    Monetary surprises; Causal estimates of monetary policy; High-frequency identification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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