IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_11552.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Michael D. Bauer
  • Eric A. Offner
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch

Abstract

Policymakers and researchers worry that the low-carbon transition may be inadvertently delayed by higher global interest rates. To examine whether green investment is especially sensitive to interest rate increases, we consider the effect of unanticipated monetary policy changes on the equity prices of green and brown European firms. We find that brown firms, measured in terms of carbon emission levels or intensities, are more negatively affected than green firms by tighter monetary policy. This heterogeneity is robust to different monetary policy surprises, emission measures, econometric methods, and sample periods, and it is not explained by other firm characteristics. This evidence suggests that higher interest rates may not skew investment away from a sustainable transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bauer & Eric A. Offner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2024. "Green Stocks and Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 11552, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11552
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11552.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Ippolito, Filippo & Ozdagli, Ali K. & Perez-Orive, Ander, 2018. "The transmission of monetary policy through bank lending: The floating rate channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-71.
    3. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 74-107, July.
    4. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    5. Pablo Ottonello & Thomas Winberry, 2020. "Financial Heterogeneity and the Investment Channel of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(6), pages 2473-2502, November.
    6. Alessandro Ferrari & Valerio Nispi Landi, 2023. "Toward a Green Economy: The Role of the Central Bank’s Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(5), pages 287-340, December.
    7. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2021. "Sustainable investing in equilibrium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 550-571.
    8. Benchora, Inessa & Leroy, Aurélien & Raffestin, Louis, 2025. "Is monetary policy transmission green?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Döttling, Robin & Ratnovski, Lev, 2023. "Monetary policy and intangible investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 53-72.
    10. Refet Gürkaynak & Hati̇ce Gökçe Karasoy‐Can & Sang Seok Lee, 2022. "Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2375-2421, August.
    11. Monica Billio & Michele Costola & Iva Hristova & Carmelo Latino & Loriana Pelizzon, 2021. "Inside the ESG ratings: (Dis)agreement and performance," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1426-1445, September.
    12. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "A Reassessment of Monetary Policy Surprises and High-Frequency Identification," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 87-155.
    13. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2018. "Climate Change, Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 219-234.
    14. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    15. Gareth Anderson & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, 2024. "Crossing the Credit Channel: Credit Spreads and Firm Heterogeneity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 417-446, July.
    16. Stephen D. Oliner & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996. "Is there a broad credit channel for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-13.
    17. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
    18. Oliner, Stephen D & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 300-309, March.
    19. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
    20. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Pagano, Marco & Polo, Andrea, 2023. "Climate Risk, Bank Lending and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 18541, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Joachim Jungherr & Matthias Meier & Timo Reinelt & Immo Schott, 2022. "Corporate Debt Maturity Matters For Monetary Policy," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2022_360, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    22. Diluiso, Francesca & Annicchiarico, Barbara & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Minx, Jan C., 2021. "Climate actions and macro-financial stability: The role of central banks," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    23. Aswani, Jitendra & Raghunandan, Aneesh & Rajgopal, Shiva, 2024. "Are carbon emissions associated with StockReturns? - Reply," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121632, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    25. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    26. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    27. Priit Jeenas, 2023. "Firm balance sheet liquidity, monetary policy shocks, and investment dynamics," Economics Working Papers 1872, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    28. Shaojun Zhang, 2025. "Carbon Returns across the Globe," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 80(1), pages 615-645, February.
    29. Sylvester Eijffinger & Ronald Mahieu & Louis Raes, 2017. "Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs Off the Stock Market?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 53-94, February.
    30. John E. T. Bistline & Neil R. Mehrotra & Catherine Wolfram, 2023. "Economic Implications of the Climate Provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(1 (Spring), pages 77-182.
    31. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
    32. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner & Richard J Zeckhauser & Alexandre Ziegler, 2021. "Investor Rewards to Climate Responsibility: Stock-Price Responses to the Opposite Shocks of the 2016 and 2020 U.S. Elections [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 748-787.
    33. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    34. Bauer, Michael & Huber, Daniel & Rudebusch, Glenn & Wilms, Ole, 2022. "Where is the carbon premium? Global performance of green and brown stocks," Other publications TiSEM 6b117156-316d-440a-9fa5-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    35. Petersen, Bruce & Strongin, Steven, 1996. "Why Are Some Industries More Cyclical Than Others?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 189-198, April.
    36. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2007. "Why Is Long‐Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration‐Based Explanation of the Value Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 55-92, February.
    37. Bond, Stephen & Van Reenen, John, 2007. "Microeconometric Models of Investment and Employment," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 65, Elsevier.
    38. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2022. "Dissecting green returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 403-424.
    39. James Cloyne & Clodomiro Ferreira & Maren Froemel & Paolo Surico, 2023. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance, and Investment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2586-2634.
    40. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    41. Ferrari, Alessandro & Nispi Landi, Valerio, 2024. "Whatever it takes to save the planet? Central banks and unconventional green policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 299-324, March.
    42. Florian Egli & Bjarne Steffen & Tobias S. Schmidt, 2018. "A dynamic analysis of financing conditions for renewable energy technologies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(12), pages 1084-1092, December.
    43. Michael D. Bauer & Ben S. Bernanke & Eric Milstein, 2023. "Risk Appetite and the Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    44. Guangye Cao & Jonathan L. Willis, 2015. "Has the U.S. economy become less interest rate sensitive?," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-3, July.
    45. Michael Bauer & Daniel Huber & Eric Offner & Marlene Renkel & Ole Wilms & Michael D. Bauer, 2024. "Corporate Green Pledges," CESifo Working Paper Series 11507, CESifo.
    46. David Ardia & Keven Bluteau & Kris Boudt & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2023. "Climate Change Concerns and the Performance of Green vs. Brown Stocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(12), pages 7607-7632, December.
    47. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-826, August.
    48. Florian Berg & Julian F Kölbel & Roberto Rigobon, 2022. "Aggregate Confusion: The Divergence of ESG Ratings [Corporate social responsibility and firm risk: theory and empirical evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1315-1344.
    49. Robert G. Eccles & Ioannis Ioannou & George Serafeim, 2014. "The Impact of Corporate Sustainability on Organizational Processes and Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(11), pages 2835-2857, November.
    50. Aswani, Jitendra & Raghunandan, Aneesh & Rajgopal, Shivaram, 2024. "Are carbon emissions associated with stock returns?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118364, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    51. Jitendra Aswani & Aneesh Raghunandan & Shiva Rajgopal, 2024. "Are Carbon Emissions Associated with Stock Returns?—Reply," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 111-115.
    52. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
    53. Tobias S. Schmidt & Bjarne Steffen & Florian Egli & Michael Pahle & Oliver Tietjen & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2019. "Adverse effects of rising interest rates on sustainable energy transitions," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 879-885, September.
    54. Nicolás Aguila & Joscha Wullweber, 2024. "Greener and cheaper: green monetary policy in the era of inflation and high interest rates," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(1), pages 39-60, March.
    55. Ozdagli, Ali & Velikov, Mihail, 2020. "Show me the money: The monetary policy risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 320-339.
    56. Jitendra Aswani & Aneesh Raghunandan & Shiva Rajgopal, 2024. "Are Carbon Emissions Associated with Stock Returns?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 75-106.
    57. Ali K Ozdagli, 2018. "Financial Frictions and the Stock Price Reaction to Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(10), pages 3895-3936.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:osf:osfxxx:kqdar_v2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Karen Davtyan & Adel R. Kalozdi, 2025. "The Power of Words: Central Bank Green Communication and Performance of Energy Sectors," Working Papers wpdea2515, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benchora, Inessa & Leroy, Aurélien & Raffestin, Louis, 2025. "Is monetary policy transmission green?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, 2025. "The heterogeneous impact of monetary policy announcements on firms' financial outcomes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), How can central banks take account of differences across households and firms for monetary policy?, volume 127, pages 295-330, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Times," Economics Series Working Papers 1082, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 2213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Fatih Kansoy & Dominykas Stasiulaitis, 2025. "Green Shields: The Role of ESG in Uncertain Time," Papers 2506.02143, arXiv.org.
    6. Marie Alder & Nuno Coimbra & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2025. "Corporate debt structure and heterogeneous monetary policy transmission," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Leveraging corporates' financial statements for policy insights, volume 65, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Darmouni, Olivier & Geisecke, Oliver & Rodnyanky, Alexander, 2019. "The Bond Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 95141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sylvérie Herbert & Paul Hubert & Mathias Lé, 2025. "When does Monetary Policy Matter? Policy Stance vs. Term Premium News," Working papers 1017, Banque de France.
    9. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    11. repec:osf:osfxxx:kqdar_v2 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2025. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Döttling, Robin & Lam, Adrian, 2023. "Does Monetary Policy Shape the Path to Carbon Neutrality?," OSF Preprints kqdar, Center for Open Science.
    14. Hambel, Christoph & van der Sanden, Floor, 2025. "Reevaluating the carbon premium: Evidence of green outperformance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    15. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
    16. Fliegel, Philip, 2025. "“Brown” Risk or “Green” Opportunity? The dynamic pricing of climate transition risk on global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Kaminska, Iryna & Mumtaz, Haroon & Šustek, Roman, 2021. "Monetary policy surprises and their transmission through term premia and expected interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 48-65.
    18. Priit Jeenas, 2023. "Firm balance sheet liquidity, monetary policy shocks, and investment dynamics," Economics Working Papers 1872, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    19. Hauzenberger, Niko & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Stelzer, Anna, 2021. "On the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s conventional and unconventional policies under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 822-845.
    20. Bianco, Timothy & Herrera, Ana María, 2025. "Monetary policy and credit flows: A tale of two effective lower bounds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    21. Phillip An & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Amaze Lusompa, 2025. "How High Does High Frequency Need to Be? A Comparison of Daily and Intradaily Monetary Policy Surprises," Research Working Paper RWP 25-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11552. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.