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Warning words in a warming world: central bank communication and climate change

Author

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  • Campiglio, Emanuele
  • Deyris, Jérôme
  • Romelli, Davide
  • Scalisi, Ginevra

Abstract

We study climate-related central bank communication using a novel dataset containing 35,487 speeches delivered by 131 central banks from 1986 to 2023. We employ natural language processing techniques to identify and trace the evolution of key climate-related narratives centred around (i) green finance, and (ii) climate-related financial risks. We find that central bank public communication strategies are primarily driven by underlying institutional factors, rather than exposure to climate-related risks. We then study the impact of climate-related communication on financial market dynamics through both a portfolio and a firm-level analysis. We find that equity returns of ‘green’ firms outperform those of ‘dirty’ firms when central banks engage more frequently and intensely with climate-related topics.

Suggested Citation

  • Campiglio, Emanuele & Deyris, Jérôme & Romelli, Davide & Scalisi, Ginevra, 2025. "Warning words in a warming world: central bank communication and climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 128518, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:128518
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/128518/
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    central banking; climate change; low-carbon transition; central bank communication; climate-related risks; green finance; text analysis; topic modelling; asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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