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The power of words: Central bank green communication and performance of energy sectors

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  • Davtyan, Karen
  • Kalozdi, Adel R.

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of climate- and energy-related (green) communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the performance of renewable and fossil-based energy sectors. Using a sentence-embedding natural language processing model, we identify ECB speeches from 2015 to 2024 that explicitly reference both climate and energy themes, categorize them, and compute a green score for each. The analysis reveals prominent topics of climate and financial risk, and monetary policy and economic conditions, along with consistently positive and trust-related emotional cues. We then use high-frequency identification to estimate the effect of ECB green speeches on the return differential between green and brown energy sectors. The results show that ECB green communication positively and significantly affects sectoral relative returns, highlighting the communicative role of the ECB in influencing the relative performance of green and brown energy sectors. The results remain robust across a series of sensitivity analyses. The effect does not change significantly with the outbreak of the Russian–Ukrainian war or across ECB communication topics. We further find that ECB green speeches delivered by the President have a stronger effect on the return differential.

Suggested Citation

  • Davtyan, Karen & Kalozdi, Adel R., 2026. "The power of words: Central bank green communication and performance of energy sectors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:160:y:2026:i:c:s0140988326003038
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109424
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    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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