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Inferring Term Rates from SOFR Futures Prices

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Abstract

The Alternative Reference Rate Committee, a group of private-sector market participants convened by the Federal Reserve, has recommended that markets transition to the use of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in financial contracts that currently reference US dollar LIBOR. This paper examines the feasibility of using SOFR futures prices to construct forward-looking term reference rates that are conceptually similar to the term LIBOR rates commonly used in loan contracts. We show that futures-implied term SOFR rates have closely tracked federal funds OIS rates over the eight months since SOFR futures began trading. To examine the performance of our approach over a longer time horizon, we compare term rates derived from federal funds futures with observed overnight rates and OIS rates from 2000 to the present. Consistent with prior research, we find that futures-implied term rates accurately predict realized compounded overnight rates during most periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Heitfield & Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Inferring Term Rates from SOFR Futures Prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-014, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2019-14
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2019.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Overnight Indexed Swap Market-Based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1733, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
    3. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heidorn, Thomas & Meier, Rebecca, 2024. "US Dollar swaps after LIBOR," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 235, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    2. David Skovmand & Jacob Bjerre Skov, 2022. "Decomposing LIBOR in Transition: Evidence from the Futures Markets," Papers 2201.06930, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    3. Matthew Bickersteth & Yining Ding & Marek Rutkowski, 2021. "Pricing and hedging of SOFR derivatives," Papers 2112.14033, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    4. Brugler, James & Khomyn, Marta & Putniņs̆, Tālis, 2025. "Benchmarking benchmarks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Heidorn, Thomas & Liem, Erik & Requardt, Stefan & Wahnschaap, Tim, 2025. "US$ interest rate and cross currency swaps after the LIBOR funeral: A corporate treasury primer," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 236, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    6. Harju, Antti J., 2024. "Target rate factors in short rate models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Indriawan, Ivan & Jiao, Feng & Tse, Yiuman, 2022. "Price discovery between forward-looking SOFR and LIBOR," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    8. Fang, Dong-Jie & Yeh, Zong-Wei & He, Jie-Cao & Lin, Shih-Kuei, 2024. "What drives jumps in the secured Overnight Financing Rate? Evidence from the arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model with jump diffusion," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. Indriawan, Ivan & Jiao, Feng & Tse, Yiuman, 2021. "The SOFR and the Fed’s influence over market interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    10. Acosta, Miguel & Brennan, Connor M. & Jacobson, Margaret M., 2024. "Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    11. Alan Brace & Karol Gellert & Erik Schlögl, 2024. "SOFR term structure dynamics—Discontinuous short rates and stochastic volatility forward rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 936-985, June.
    12. Karol Gellert & Erik Schlogl, 2021. "Short Rate Dynamics: A Fed Funds and SOFR Perspective," Research Paper Series 420, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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