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Inflation, Endogenous Market Segmentation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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  • Casper de Vries

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Xuedong Wang

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

Abstract

The term structure of interest rates does not adhere to the expectations hypothesis, possibly due to a risk premium. We consider the implications of a risk premium that arises from endogenous market segmentation driven by variable inflation rates. In the absence of autocorrelation in inflation, the risk premium is constant. If inflation is correlated, however, the risk premium becomes time varying and we can rationalize the failure of the expectations hypothesis. Indirect empirical tests of the model’s implications are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Casper de Vries & Xuedong Wang, 2015. "Inflation, Endogenous Market Segmentation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-066/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectations hypothesis; Term structure; Time-Varying Risk Premia; Segmented markets; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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