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Short Rate Dynamics: A Fed Funds and SOFR Perspective

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Abstract

The Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is becoming the main Risk–Free Rate benchmark in US dollars, thus interest rate term structure models need to be updated to reflect the key features exhibited by the dynamics of SOFR and the forward rates implied by SOFR futures. Historically, interest rate term structure modelling has been based on rates of substantially longer time to maturity than overnight, but with SOFR the overnight rate now is the primary market observable. This means that the empirical idiosyncrasies of the overnight rate cannot be ignored when constructing interest rate models in a SOFR–based world. As a rate reflecting transactions in the Treasury overnight repurchase market, the dynamics of SOFR are closely linked to the dynamics Effective Federal Funds Rate (EFFR), which is the interest rate most directly impacted by US monetary policy target rate decisions. Therefore, these rates feature jumps at known times (Federal Open Market Committee meeting dates), and market expectations of these jumps are reflected in prices for futures written on these rates. On the other hand, forward rates implied by Fed Funds and SOFR futures continue to evolve diffusively. The model presented in this paper reflects the key empirical features of SOFR dynamics and is calibrated to futures prices. In particular, the model reconciles diffusive forward rate dynamics with piecewise constant paths of the target short rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Karol Gellert & Erik Schlogl, 2021. "Short Rate Dynamics: A Fed Funds and SOFR Perspective," Research Paper Series 420, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:420
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    Cited by:

    1. David Skovmand & Jacob Bjerre Skov, 2022. "Decomposing LIBOR in Transition: Evidence from the Futures Markets," Papers 2201.06930, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    2. Backwell, Alex & Hayes, Joshua, 2022. "Expected and Unexpected Jumps in the Overnight Rate: Consistent Management of the Libor Transition," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Matthew Bickersteth & Yining Ding & Marek Rutkowski, 2021. "Pricing and hedging of SOFR derivatives," Papers 2112.14033, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2025.
    4. Alessandro Gnoatto & Silvia Lavagnini, 2023. "Cross-Currency Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework in the Multiple-Curve Setting," Papers 2312.13057, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    5. Claudio Fontana & Zorana Grbac & Thorsten Schmidt, 2022. "Term structure modelling with overnight rates beyond stochastic continuity," Papers 2202.00929, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    6. Damiano Brigo & Cristin Buescu & Marco Francischello & Andrea Pallavicini & Marek Rutkowski, 2022. "Nonlinear Valuation with XVAs: Two Converging Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-31, March.
    7. Alessandro Calvia & Marzia De Donno & Chiara Guardasoni & Simona Sanfelici, 2025. "Short-rate models with stochastic discontinuities: a PDE approach," Papers 2510.04289, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2026.
    8. Harju, Antti J., 2024. "Target rate factors in short rate models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Fang, Dong-Jie & Yeh, Zong-Wei & He, Jie-Cao & Lin, Shih-Kuei, 2024. "What drives jumps in the secured Overnight Financing Rate? Evidence from the arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel model with jump diffusion," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Flavio Angelini & Stefano Herzel & Marco Nicolosi, 2025. "Modeling Euro Area Benchmark Rates After the End of LIBOR," CEIS Research Paper 613, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 07 Oct 2025.
    11. Yining Ding & Ruyi Liu & Marek Rutkowski, 2024. "Cross-Currency Basis Swaps Referencing Backward-Looking Rates," Papers 2410.08477, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2025.
    12. Alan Brace & Karol Gellert & Erik Schlögl, 2024. "SOFR term structure dynamics—Discontinuous short rates and stochastic volatility forward rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(6), pages 936-985, June.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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