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Persistence and volatility in short-term interest rates

  • Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou
  • James Proudman
  • John Spicer
Registered author(s):

    It is important for monetary policy makers to know how closely money market rates follow the policy rates they set. This paper looks at the volatility and persistence of divergences between short-term market interest rates away from policy rates. This may also offer insights into the effectiveness of various approaches that central banks employ to smooth interest rate volatility, such as requiring minimum reserves. Using data for Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom, it is found that in all three countries there are significant temporary divergences, although the average divergence is close to zero.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2000/wp116.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 116.

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    Date of creation: Jun 2000
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    Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:116
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    1. Nowman, K B, 1997. " Gaussian Estimation of Single-Factor Continuous Time Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1695-1706, September.
    2. Haydn Davies, 1998. "Averaging in a framework of zero reserve requirements: implications for the operation of monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 84, Bank of England.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
    4. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1982. "An Equilibrium Model of Bond Pricing and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 301-329, September.
    5. Longstaff, Francis A., 1989. "A nonlinear general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 195-224, August.
    6. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1993. "One-Factor Interest-Rate Models and the Valuation of Interest-Rate Derivative Securities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(02), pages 235-254, June.
    7. Dietrich-Campbell, Bruce & Schwartz, Eduardo, 1986. "Valuing debt options : Empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 321-343, July.
    8. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
    9. Gibbons, Michael R & Ramaswamy, Krishna, 1993. "A Test of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model of the Term Structure," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 619-58.
    10. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1990. "Persistence in Variance, Structural Change, and the GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 225-34, April.
    11. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
    12. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
    13. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
    14. Brenner, Robin J. & Harjes, Richard H. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1996. "Another Look at Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 85-107, March.
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