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Non-Linear Taylor Rule through Threshold Estimation

  • Bhaduri, Saumitra
  • Sethudurai, Raja

This paper tries to identify non-linearity in the estimation of Taylor type reaction function for Reserve Bank of India using a threshold estimation technique of Hansen (2000). For the monthly data from March 2001 to October 2009 with Repo rate as the policy rate the estimation significantly identifies two thresholds with inflation and one threshold with output gap as threshold variables. We compared this model with that of a naïve univariate model and the typical Taylor type reaction function, the results are in support of the non-linear model in predicting the repo rate at turning points with more accuracy than the other two competing models.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/44844/1/MPRA_paper_44844.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44844.

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Date of creation: 08 Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:44844
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  1. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, November.
  2. Francisco Javier Ruge-Murcia, 2001. "Inflation Targeting Under Asymmetric Preferences," IMF Working Papers 01/161, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Paper Series 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Dolado, Juan J. & Maria-Dolores, Ramon & Naveira, Manuel, 2005. "Are monetary-policy reaction functions asymmetric?: The role of nonlinearity in the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 485-503, February.
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1995. "Optimal Inflation Targets, `Conservative' Central Banks, and Linear Inflation Contracts," NBER Working Papers 5251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
  8. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
  9. Athanasios Orphanides, 1998. "Monetary policy rules based on real-time data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Kenneth Petersen, 2007. "Does the Federal Reserve Follow a Non-Linear Taylor Rule?," Working papers 2007-37, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  11. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  12. A. Robert Nobay & David A. Peel, 2003. "Optimal Discretionary Monetary Policy in a Model of Asymmetric Central Bank Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(489), pages 657-665, 07.
  13. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What Is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 426-477, June.
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