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Threshold dynmamics of short-term interest rates: empirical evidence and implications for the term structure

  • Archontakis, Theofanis
  • Lemke, Wolfgang

This paper studies a nonlinear one-factor term structure model in discrete time. The single factor is the short-term interest rate, which is modeled as a self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) process. Our specification allows for shifts in the intercept and the variance. The process is stationary but mimics the nearly I(1) dynamics typically encountered with interest rates. In comparison with a linear model, we find empirical evidence in favor of the threshold model for Germany and the US. Based on the estimated short-rate dynamics we derive the implied arbitrage-free term structure of interest rates. Since analytical solutions are not feasible, bond prices are computed by means of Monte Carlo integration. The resulting term structure exhibits properties that are qualitatively similar to those observed in the data and which cannot be captured by the linear Gaussian one-factor model. In particular, our model captures the nonlinear relation between long rates and the short rate found in the data.

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Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2007,02.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5405
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  1. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288.
  2. Lanne, M. & Saikkonen, P., 2000. "Threshold Autoregression for Strongly Autocorrelated Time Series," University of Helsinki, Department of Economics 489, Department of Economics.
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