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Delincuencia, Pobreza y Crecimiento Económico en México, ¿existe una relación asimétrica?
[Delinquency, Poverty and Economic Growth in Mexico, is there an asymmetric relationship?]


  • Cortez, Willy W.
  • Islas-Camargo, Alejandro


This essay evaluates the relationship between crime and GDP growth rates controlling by the proportion of people that cannot purchase the basic food basket with their labor income. Following recent studies we demonstrate that the relationship between crime and economic performance is not time invariant. We estimate the response coefficient using a Markov Switching model. Our results indicate that when GDP is in the expansion's regime, crime growth rates become positive; while when GDP is in the stagnation's regime, crime growth rates turn negative. Another of the findings is that an increase in the proportion of people that earn less than the cost of the basic food basket, growth rate of robberies increase. The latter effect is stronger when the economy shows a relative economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortez, Willy W. & Islas-Camargo, Alejandro, 2017. "Delincuencia, Pobreza y Crecimiento Económico en México, ¿existe una relación asimétrica?
    [Delinquency, Poverty and Economic Growth in Mexico, is there an asymmetric relationship?]
    ," MPRA Paper 80258, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80258

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jose Navarro Martinez & Willy Walter Cortez-Yactayo, 2015. "Who are the victims of property crime in Mexico?," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 179-198, February.
    2. Cinthya Caamal & Lourdes Treviño & Jorge Valero, 2012. "¿Son los pobres las victimas de la inseguridad en las metropolis de Mexico?," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 9(1), pages 159-169, Enero-Jun.
    3. repec:eee:deveco:v:127:y:2017:i:c:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Concha Verdugo Yepes & Peter L. Pedroni & Xingwei Hu, 2015. "Crime and the Economy in Mexican States; Heterogeneous Panel Estimates (1993-2012)," IMF Working Papers 15/121, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item


    Business Cycles; Crime; Asymmetric Effects; Poverty; Markov Switching;

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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