Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility
Energy prices are often highly volatile with unexpected spikes. Capturing these sudden spikes may lead to more informed decision-making in energy investments, such as valuing gas-fired power plants, than ignoring them. In this paper, non-linear regime-switching models and models with mean-reverting stochastic volatility are compared with ordinary linear models. The study is performed using UK electricity and natural gas daily spot prices and suggests that with the aim of valuing a gas-fired power plant with and without operational flexibility, non-linear models with stochastic volatility, specifically for logarithms of electricity prices, provide better out-of-sample forecasts than both linear models and regime-switching models.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Klemperer, Paul D & Meyer, Margaret A, 1989. "Supply Function Equilibria in Oligopoly under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1243-77, November.
- Green, Richard, 1999. "The Electricity Contract Market in England and Wales," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 107-24, March.
- Eduardo Schwartz & James E. Smith, 2000. "Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Commodity Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(7), pages 893-911, July.
- Alvaro Cartea & Thomas Williams, 2006.
"UK Gas Markets: the Market Price of Risk and Applications to Multiple Interruptible Supply Contracts,"
Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance
0608, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Cartea, Álvaro & Williams, Thomas, 2008. "UK gas markets: The market price of risk and applications to multiple interruptible supply contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 829-846, May.
- Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
- Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien McMahon, 2006.
"Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion,"
Staff Working Papers
06-14, Bank of Canada.
- Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien Mcmahon, 2008. "Forecasting commodity prices: GARCH, jumps, and mean reversion," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 279-291.
- Kosater, Peter & Mosler, Karl, 2006.
"Can Markov regime-switching models improve power-price forecasts? Evidence from German daily power prices,"
Elsevier, vol. 83(9), pages 943-958, September.
- Kosater, Peter & Mosler, Karl, 2005. "Can Markov-regime switching models improve power price forecasts? Evidence for German daily power prices," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 1/05, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
- Green, Richard & Newbery, David M G, 1991.
"Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Green, Richard J & Newbery, David M, 1992. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 929-53, October.
- Guthrie, Graeme & Videbeck, Steen, 2007. "Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5614-5621, November.
- Robert Wilson, 2002. "Architecture of Power Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1299-1340, July.
- Fleten, Stein-Erik & Lemming, Jacob, 2003. "Constructing forward price curves in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 409-424, September.
- Nasakkala, Erkka & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2005.
"Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments,"
Review of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
- Erkka Näsäkkälä & Stein- Erik Fleten, 2004. "Flexibility and Technology Choice in Gas Fired Power Plant Investments," Others 0405004, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2006.
- Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.
- Bolle, Friedel, 1992. "Supply function equilibria and the danger of tacit collusion : The case of spot markets for electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 94-102, April.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1999.
"The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
- David G. Laughton & Henry D. Jacoby, 1993. "Reversion, Timing Options, and Long-Term Decision-Making," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
- Green, Richard J, 1996. "Increasing Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 205-16, June.
- Aiube, Fernando Antonio Lucena & Baidya, Tara Keshar Nanda & Tito, Edison Americo Huarsaya, 2008. "Analysis of commodity prices with the particle filter," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 597-605, March.
- Green, Richard, 2006. "Market power mitigation in the UK power market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 76-89, June.
- Azadeh, A. & Ghaderi, S.F. & Sohrabkhani, S., 2008. "A simulated-based neural network algorithm for forecasting electrical energy consumption in Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2637-2644, July.
- Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
- Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:3:p:709-725. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.