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Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility

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  • Heydari, Somayeh
  • Siddiqui, Afzal

Abstract

Energy prices are often highly volatile with unexpected spikes. Capturing these sudden spikes may lead to more informed decision-making in energy investments, such as valuing gas-fired power plants, than ignoring them. In this paper, non-linear regime-switching models and models with mean-reverting stochastic volatility are compared with ordinary linear models. The study is performed using UK electricity and natural gas daily spot prices and suggests that with the aim of valuing a gas-fired power plant with and without operational flexibility, non-linear models with stochastic volatility, specifically for logarithms of electricity prices, provide better out-of-sample forecasts than both linear models and regime-switching models.

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  • Heydari, Somayeh & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2010. "Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 709-725, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:3:p:709-725
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    4. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    5. Palzer, Andreas & Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2013. "Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 143-160.
    6. Elias, R.S. & Wahab, M.I.M. & Fang, L., 2016. "The spark spread and clean spark spread option based valuation of a power plant with multiple turbines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 314-327.
    7. Carpaneto, Enrico & Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi & Russo, Angela, 2011. "Cogeneration planning under uncertainty: Part I: Multiple time frame approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1059-1067, April.
    8. Emilio L. Cano & Javier M. Moguerza & Tatiana Ermolieva & Yurii Yermoliev, 2017. "A strategic decision support system framework for energy-efficient technology investments," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(2), pages 249-270, July.
    9. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.

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