IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v88y2011i4p1059-1067.html

Cogeneration planning under uncertainty: Part I: Multiple time frame approach

Author

Listed:
  • Carpaneto, Enrico
  • Chicco, Gianfranco
  • Mancarella, Pierluigi
  • Russo, Angela

Abstract

Cogeneration system planning spans a multi-year time interval and is affected by various sources of uncertainty, mainly depending on the evolution of energy loads and prices. The high level of uncertainty requires assessing the convenience of adopting predefined technological alternatives in different scenarios of variation of the uncertain variables. This paper introduces an original framework based on identifying the characteristics of small-scale and large-scale uncertainties, whereby a comprehensive approach based on multiple (long-, medium- and short-term) time frames is formulated. Medium-term time periods exhibiting small variations of both electrical and thermal load patterns are grouped together and represented through electrical/thermal load and electricity price correlated random variables (RVs). A Monte Carlo simulation of the cogeneration plant operation is carried out in the short-term by extracting the RVs for each group from multivariate Normal probability distributions. Multi-year scenarios in the long-term time frame are addressed in the companion paper (Part II). The proposed approach is applied to a real energy system.

Suggested Citation

  • Carpaneto, Enrico & Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi & Russo, Angela, 2011. "Cogeneration planning under uncertainty: Part I: Multiple time frame approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1059-1067, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:4:p:1059-1067
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306-2619(10)00416-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Jiang-Jiang & Jing, You-Yin & Zhang, Chun-Fa & Zhao, Jun-Hong, 2009. "Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision-making," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(9), pages 2263-2278, December.
    2. Wickart, Marcel & Madlener, Reinhard, 2007. "Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 934-952, July.
    3. Aki, Hirohisa & Oyama, Tsutomu & Tsuji, Kiichiro, 2006. "Analysis of energy service systems in urban areas and their CO2 mitigations and economic impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(10), pages 1076-1088, October.
    4. Lahdelma, Risto & Makkonen, Simo & Salminen, Pekka, 2009. "Two ways to handle dependent uncertainties in multi-criteria decision problems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 79-92, February.
    5. Heydari, Somayeh & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2010. "Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 709-725, May.
    6. Oh, Si-Doek & Oh, Hoo-Suk & Kwak, Ho-Young, 2007. "Economic evaluation for adoption of cogeneration system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 266-278, March.
    7. Al-Mansour, Fouad & Kožuh, Mitja, 2007. "Risk analysis for CHP decision making within the conditions of an open electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1905-1916.
    8. Fleten, S.-E. & Maribu, K.M. & Wangensteen, I., 2007. "Optimal investment strategies in decentralized renewable power generation under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 803-815.
    9. Carpaneto, Enrico & Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi & Russo, Angela, 2011. "Cogeneration planning under uncertainty. Part II: Decision theory-based assessment of planning alternatives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1075-1083, April.
    10. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Marnay, Chris, 2008. "Distributed generation investment by a microgrid under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1729-1737.
    11. Karakatsani, Nektaria V. & Bunn, Derek W., 2008. "Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1776-1797, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2014. "MES (multi-energy systems): An overview of concepts and evaluation models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Lai, Sau Man & Hui, Chi Wai, 2009. "Feasibility and flexibility for a trigeneration system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1693-1704.
    3. Lin, Tyrone T. & Huang, Shio-Ling, 2011. "Application of the modified Tobin's q to an uncertain energy-saving project with the real options concept," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 408-420, January.
    4. Naraharisetti, Pavan Kumar & Karimi, I.A. & Anand, Abhay & Lee, Dong-Yup, 2011. "A linear diversity constraint – Application to scheduling in microgrids," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4235-4243.
    5. Tataraki, Kalliopi G. & Kavvadias, Konstantinos C. & Maroulis, Zacharias B., 2018. "A systematic approach to evaluate the economic viability of Combined Cooling Heating and Power systems over conventional technologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 283-295.
    6. Mavromatidis, Georgios & Orehounig, Kristina & Carmeliet, Jan, 2018. "A review of uncertainty characterisation approaches for the optimal design of distributed energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    7. Silvia Angilella & Maria Rosaria Pappalardo, 2022. "Performance assessment of energy companies employing Hierarchy Stochastic Multi-Attribute Acceptability Analysis," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 299-370, March.
    8. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    9. Arvesen, Ø. & Medbø, V. & Fleten, S.-E. & Tomasgard, A. & Westgaard, S., 2013. "Linepack storage valuation under price uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 155-164.
    10. Dong, Cong & Huang, Guohe & Cai, Yanpeng & Cheng, Guanhui & Tan, Qian, 2016. "Bayesian interval robust optimization for sustainable energy system planning in Qiqihar City, China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 357-376.
    11. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
    12. Muhammad Riaz & Wojciech Sałabun & Hafiz Muhammad Athar Farid & Nawazish Ali & Jarosław Wątróbski, 2020. "A Robust q-Rung Orthopair Fuzzy Information Aggregation Using Einstein Operations with Application to Sustainable Energy Planning Decision Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-39, May.
    13. Andreas Welling, 2017. "Green Finance: Recent developments, characteristics and important actors," FEMM Working Papers 170002, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    14. Ersoz, Ibrahim & Colak, Uner, 2016. "Combined cooling, heat and power planning under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1016-1025.
    15. repec:aen:journl:ej38-2-farrell is not listed on IDEAS
    16. William E., Lilley & Luke J., Reedman & Liam D., Wagner & Colin F., Alie & Anthony R., Szatow, 2012. "An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 277-289.
    17. Tolis, Athanasios I. & Rentizelas, Athanasios A., 2011. "An impact assessment of electricity and emission allowances pricing in optimised expansion planning of power sector portfolios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3791-3806.
    18. Rezvan, A. Taghipour & Gharneh, N. Shams & Gharehpetian, G.B., 2012. "Robust optimization of distributed generation investment in buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 455-463.
    19. Karatepe, Engin & Ugranlı, Faruk & Hiyama, Takashi, 2015. "Comparison of single- and multiple-distributed generation concepts in terms of power loss, voltage profile, and line flows under uncertain scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 317-327.
    20. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
    21. Keirstead, James & Jennings, Mark & Sivakumar, Aruna, 2012. "A review of urban energy system models: Approaches, challenges and opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3847-3866.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:4:p:1059-1067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.