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Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production

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  • Wickart, Marcel
  • Madlener, Reinhard

Abstract

In this paper we develop an economic model that explains the decision-making problem under uncertainty of an industrial firm that wants to invest in a process technology. More specifically, the decision is between making an irreversible investment in a combined heat-and-power production (cogeneration) system, or to invest in a conventional heat-only generation system (steam boiler) and to purchase all electricity from the grid. In our model we include the main economic and technical variables of the investment decision process. We also account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in volatile energy prices that can greatly affect the valuation of the investment project. The dynamic stochastic model presented allows us to simultaneously determine the optimal technology choice and investment timing. We apply the theoretical model and illustrate our main findings with a numerical example that is based on realistic cost values for industrial oil- or gas-fired cogeneration and heat-only generation in Switzerland. We also briefly discuss expected effects of a CO2 tax on the investment decision.
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  • Wickart, Marcel & Madlener, Reinhard, 2007. "Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 934-952, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:29:y:2007:i:4:p:934-952
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    Cited by:

    1. Carpaneto, Enrico & Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi & Russo, Angela, 2011. "Cogeneration planning under uncertainty: Part I: Multiple time frame approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1059-1067, April.
    2. Greening, Lorna A. & Boyd, Gale & Roop, Joseph M., 2007. "Modeling of industrial energy consumption: An introduction and context," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 599-608, July.
    3. Niall Farrell, Mel T. Devine, William T. Lee, James P. Gleeson, and Sean Lyons, 2017. "Specifying An Efficient Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Andreas Welling, 2017. "Green Finance: Recent developments, characteristics and important actors," FEMM Working Papers 170002, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    5. Eder, Andreas, 2017. "Cost efficiency and economies of diversification of biogas-fuelled cogeneration plants in Austria: a nonparametric approach," MPRA Paper 80369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Development of cogeneration in Germany: A mean-variance portfolio analysis of individual technology’s prospects in view of the new regulatory framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5301-5313.
    7. Himpler, Sebastian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Repowering of Wind Turbines: Economics and Optimal Timing," FCN Working Papers 19/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    8. Somayeh Heydari & Nick Ovenden & Afzal Siddiqui, 2012. "Real options analysis of investment in carbon capture and sequestration technology," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 109-138, February.
    9. Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horehájová, 2012. "Using a choice experiment to estimate the benefits of a reduction of externalities in urban areas with special focus on electrosmog," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 387-397, January.
    10. Westner, Günther & Madlener, Reinhard, 2012. "Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 31-44.
    11. Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2014. "MES (multi-energy systems): An overview of concepts and evaluation models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-17.
    12. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
    13. Silvia Banfi & Massimo Filippini & Andrea Horehájová, 2007. "Hedonic Price Functions for Zurich and Lugano with Special Focus on Electrosmog," CEPE Working paper series 07-57, CEPE Center for Energy Policy and Economics, ETH Zurich.
    14. Chung, Mo & Park, Chuhwan & Lee, Sukgyu & Park, Hwa-Choon & Im, Yong-Hoon & Chang, Youngho, 2012. "A decision support assessment of cogeneration plant for a community energy system in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 365-383.
    15. Karina Schoengold & David L. Sunding, 2014. "The impact of water price uncertainty on the adoption of precision irrigation systems," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 729-743, November.
    16. Svensson, Elin & Strömberg, Ann-Brith & Patriksson, Michael, 2011. "A model for optimization of process integration investments under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2733-2746.
    17. de Oliveira, Denis Luis & Brandao, Luiz E. & Igrejas, Rafael & Gomes, Leonardo Lima, 2014. "Switching outputs in a bioenergy cogeneration project: A real options approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 74-82.
    18. repec:eee:rensus:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:272-286 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:6:p:2069-:d:153149 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. William E., Lilley & Luke J., Reedman & Liam D., Wagner & Colin F., Alie & Anthony R., Szatow, 2012. "An economic evaluation of the potential for distributed energy in Australia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 277-289.
    21. repec:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:5:p:1133-:d:144382 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Svensson, Elin & Berntsson, Thore & Strömberg, Ann-Brith & Patriksson, Michael, 2009. "An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 680-685, February.
    23. Wittmann, Nadine & Yildiz, Özgür, 2013. "A microeconomic analysis of decentralized small scale biomass based CHP plants—The case of Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 123-129.
    24. Svensson, Elin & Berntsson, Thore, 2014. "The effect of long lead times for planning of energy efficiency and biorefinery technologies at a pulp mill," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 12-16.
    25. Svensson, Elin & Berntsson, Thore, 2011. "Planning future investments in emerging energy technologies for pulp mills considering different scenarios for their investment cost development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6508-6519.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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