Optimal Technology Choice and Investment Timing: A Stochastic Model of Industrial Cogeneration vs. Heat-Only Production
In this paper we develop an economic model that explains the decision-making problem under uncertainty of an industrial firm that wants to invest in a process technology. More specifically, the decision is between making an irreversible investment in a combined heat-and-power production (cogeneration) system, or to invest in a conventional heat-only generation system (steam boiler) and to purchase all electricity from the grid. In our model we include the main economic and technical variables of the investment decision process. We also account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in volatile energy prices that can greatly affect the valuation of the investment project. The dynamic stochastic model presented allows us to simultaneously determine the optimal technology choice and investment timing. We apply the theoretical model and illustrate our main findings with a numerical example that is based on realistic cost values for industrial oil- or gas-fired cogeneration and heat-only generation in Switzerland. We also briefly discuss expected effects of a CO2 tax on the investment decision.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +41-1-632 06 50
Fax: +41-1-632 16 22
Web page: http://www.cepe.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
- Frayer, Julia & Uludere, Nazli Z., 2001. "What Is It Worth? Application of Real Options Theory to the Valuation of Generation Assets," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(8), pages 40-51, October.
- Fox-Penner, Peter S., 1990. "Regulating independent power producers : Lessons of the PURPA approach," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 117-141, April.
- Kwon, Oh Sang & Yun, Won-Cheol, 2003. "Measuring economies of scope for cogeneration systems in Korea: a nonparametric approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 331-338, July.
- Chi-Keung Woo, 1988. "Inefficiency of Avoided Cost Pricing of Cogenerated Power," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 103-113.
- Dobbs, Ian M., 1982. "Combined heat and power economics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 276-285, October.
- Keppo, Jussi & Lu, Hao, 2003. "Real options and a large producer: the case of electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 459-472, September.
- Anandalingam, G., 1985. "Government policy and industrial investment in cogeneration in the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 117-126, April.
- Nasakkala, Erkka & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2005.
"Flexibility and technology choice in gas fired power plant investments,"
Review of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 371-393.
- Erkka Näsäkkälä & Stein- Erik Fleten, 2004. "Flexibility and Technology Choice in Gas Fired Power Plant Investments," Others 0405004, EconWPA, revised 06 Apr 2006.
- Paul L. Joskow & Donald R. Jones, 1983. "The Simple Economics of Industrial Cogeneration," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-22.
- Dismukes, David E. & Kleit, Andrew N., 1999. "Cogeneration and electric power industry restructuring," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 153-166, May.
- Bonilla, David & Akisawa, Atsushi & Kashiwagi, Takao, 2003. "Modelling the adoption of industrial cogeneration in Japan using manufacturing plant survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 895-910, July.
- McDonald, Robert L & Siegel, Daniel R, 1985. "Investment and the Valuation of Firms When There Is an Option to Shut Down," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(2), pages 331-49, June.
- Kenneth Rose & John F. McDonald, 1991. "Economics of Electricity Self-Generation by Industrial Firms," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 47-66.
- Peter Zweifel & Konstantin Beck, 1987. "Utilities and Cogeneration: Some Regulatory Problems," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-15.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cee:wpcepe:04-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carlos Ordas)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.