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An Optimal Multiple Stopping Approach to Infrastructure Investment Decisions

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  • Eric Dahlgren
  • Tim Leung

Abstract

The energy and material processing industries are traditionally characterized by very large-scale physical capital that is custom-built with long lead times and long lifetimes. However, recent technological advancement in low-cost automation has made possible the parallel operation of large numbers of small-scale and modular production units. Amenable to mass-production, these units can be more rapidly deployed but they are also likely to have a much quicker turnover. Such a paradigm shift motivates the analysis of the combined effect of lead time and lifetime on infrastructure investment decisions. In order to value the underlying real option, we introduce an optimal multiple stopping approach that accounts for operational flexibility, delay induced by lead time, and multiple (finite/infinite) future investment opportunities. We provide an analytical characterization of the firm's value function and optimal stopping rule. This leads us to develop an iterative numerical scheme, and examine how the investment decisions depend on lead time and lifetime, as well as other parameters. Furthermore, our model can be used to analyze the critical investment cost that makes small-scale (short lead time, short lifetime) alternatives competitive with traditional large-scale infrastructure.

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  • Eric Dahlgren & Tim Leung, 2015. "An Optimal Multiple Stopping Approach to Infrastructure Investment Decisions," Papers 1502.00861, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1502.00861
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    Cited by:

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    2. Klaus Eisenack & Marius Paschen, 2017. "Designing long-lived investments under uncertain and ongoing change," Working Papers V-398-17, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2017.
    3. Tim Leung & Kazutoshi Yamazaki & Hongzhong Zhang, 2015. "Optimal Multiple Stopping with Negative Discount Rate and Random Refraction Times under Levy Models," Papers 1505.07313, arXiv.org.
    4. Eisenack, Klaus & Paschen, Marius, 2022. "Adapting long-lived investments under climate change uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Kevin Guo & Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2019. "How to mine gold without digging," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(01), pages 1-30, March.
    6. Carol Alexander & Xi Chen, 2021. "Model risk in real option valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1025-1056, April.
    7. Álvaro Cartea & Sebastian Jaimungal, 2017. "Irreversible Investments And Ambiguity Aversion," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(07), pages 1-26, November.
    8. Ludkovski, Michael & Sircar, Ronnie, 2016. "Technology ladders and R&D in dynamic Cournot markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 127-151.
    9. Fontini, Fulvio & Vargiolu, Tiziano & Zormpas, Dimitrios, 2021. "Investing in electricity production under a reliability options scheme," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

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