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Model Risk in Real Option Valuation

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  • Carol Alexander
  • Xi Chen

Abstract

We introduce a general decision tree framework to value an option to invest/divest in a project, focusing on the model risk inherent in the assumptions made by standard real option valuation methods. We examine how real option values depend on the dynamics of project value and investment costs, the frequency of exercise opportunities, the size of the project relative to initial wealth, the investor's risk tolerance (and how it changes with wealth) and several other choices about model structure. For instance, contrary to stylized facts from previous literature, real option values can actually decrease with the volatility of the underlying project value and increase with investment costs.

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  • Carol Alexander & Xi Chen, 2018. "Model Risk in Real Option Valuation," Papers 1809.00817, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1809.00817
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander, Carol & Chen, Xi & Ward, Charles, 2021. "Risk-adjusted valuation for real option decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1046-1064.
    2. Mesias Alfeus & James Collins, 2023. "A novel stochastic modeling framework for coal production and logistics through options pricing analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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