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Cogeneration planning under uncertainty. Part II: Decision theory-based assessment of planning alternatives


  • Carpaneto, Enrico
  • Chicco, Gianfranco
  • Mancarella, Pierluigi
  • Russo, Angela


This paper discusses specific models and analyses to select the best cogeneration planning solution in the presence of uncertainties on a long-term time scale, completing the approach formulated in the companion paper (Part I). The most convenient solutions are identified among a pre-defined set of planning alternatives according to decision theory-based criteria, upon definition of weighted scenarios and by using the exceeding probabilities of suitable economic indicators as decision variables. Application of the criteria to a real energy system with various technological alternatives operated under different control strategies is illustrated and discussed. The results obtained show that using the Net Present Cost indicator it is always possible to apply the decision theory concepts to select the best planning alternative. Other economic indicators like Discounted Payback Period and Internal Rate of Return exhibit possible application limits for cogeneration planning within the decision theory framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Carpaneto, Enrico & Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi & Russo, Angela, 2011. "Cogeneration planning under uncertainty. Part II: Decision theory-based assessment of planning alternatives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1075-1083, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:88:y:2011:i:4:p:1075-1083

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2009. "Distributed multi-generation: A comprehensive view," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 535-551, April.
    2. Matos, Manuel A., 2007. "Decision under risk as a multicriteria problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1516-1529, September.
    3. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Maribu, Karl, 2009. "Investment and upgrade in distributed generation under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 25-37, January.
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    5. Kaikko, Juha & Backman, Jari, 2007. "Technical and economic performance analysis for a microturbine in combined heat and power generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 378-387.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carpaneto, Enrico & Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi & Russo, Angela, 2011. "Cogeneration planning under uncertainty: Part I: Multiple time frame approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1059-1067, April.
    2. Ersoz, Ibrahim & Colak, Uner, 2016. "Combined cooling, heat and power planning under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1016-1025.
    3. Barelli, L. & Barluzzi, E. & Bidini, G., 2011. "Modeling of a 1Â MW cogenerative internal combustion engine for diagnostic scopes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(8), pages 2702-2712, August.
    4. Dong, Cong & Huang, Guohe & Cai, Yanpeng & Cheng, Guanhui & Tan, Qian, 2016. "Bayesian interval robust optimization for sustainable energy system planning in Qiqihar City, China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 357-376.
    5. Pini Prato, Alessandro & Strobino, Fabrizio & Broccardo, Marco & Parodi Giusino, Luigi, 2012. "Integrated management of cogeneration plants and district heating networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 590-600.
    6. Van Dael, Miet & Van Passel, Steven & Pelkmans, Luc & Guisson, Ruben & Reumermann, Patrick & Luzardo, Nathalie Marquez & Witters, Nele & Broeze, Jan, 2013. "A techno-economic evaluation of a biomass energy conversion park," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 611-622.
    7. Schachter, Jonathan A. & Mancarella, Pierluigi & Moriarty, John & Shaw, Rita, 2016. "Flexible investment under uncertainty in smart distribution networks with demand side response: Assessment framework and practical implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 439-449.
    8. Guido Carpinelli & Anna Rita di Fazio & Shahab Khormali & Fabio Mottola, 2014. "Optimal Sizing of Battery Storage Systems for Industrial Applications when Uncertainties Exist," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, January.
    9. Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2014. "MES (multi-energy systems): An overview of concepts and evaluation models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-17.
    10. Capuder, Tomislav & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2014. "Techno-economic and environmental modelling and optimization of flexible distributed multi-generation options," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 516-533.
    11. Antonio Piacentino & Roberto Gallea & Pietro Catrini & Fabio Cardona & Domenico Panno, 2016. "On the Reliability of Optimization Results for Trigeneration Systems in Buildings, in the Presence of Price Uncertainties and Erroneous Load Estimation," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(12), pages 1-31, December.
    12. Luo, Xianglong & Zhang, Bingjian & Chen, Ying & Mo, Songping, 2013. "Operational planning optimization of steam power plants considering equipment failure in petrochemical complex," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1247-1264.
    13. Sun, Li & Gai, Limei & Smith, Robin, 2017. "Site utility system optimization with operation adjustment under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(P3), pages 450-456.
    14. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    15. Kitapbayev, Yerkin & Moriarty, John & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2015. "Stochastic control and real options valuation of thermal storage-enabled demand response from flexible district energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 823-831.
    16. Giulia Sonetti, 2015. "What if We Adopt a Resilience Thinking Approach in the Urban Governance for Emission Reduction?," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1295, European Regional Science Association.


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