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Impactos monetarios sobre la rentabilidad del mercado accionario en México: Un análisis de cambio de régimen Markoviano. (Monetary Impacts on the Mexican Stock Market Returns: A Markov Switching Approach)

Author

Listed:
  • Rosalinda Arriaga Navarrete.

    (UAM. México.)

  • Miriam Sosa Castro.

    (UAM-Iztapalapa. México.)

  • Abigail Rodríguez Nava.

    (UAM-Xochimilco. México.)

Abstract

Los objetivos inflacionarios pueden verse presionados por perturbaciones y fuertes volatilidades en los mercados financieros y cambiarios. Por ello, el mercado accionario y los tipos de cambio son fundamentales en la transmisión de la política monetaria, dadas las relaciones que tienen con la demanda agregada y los precios. El presente trabajo analiza la incidencia de las variables monetarias clave en la actividad de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, durante el periodo 2008-2019, a través de un modelo que incorpora quiebres estructurales, y un Vector Autorregresivo con Cambio de Régimen (MS-VAR). Las estimaciones verifican la influencia de la tasa de política monetaria; las primas de riesgos de los bonos gubernamentales y corporativos; y el tipo de cambio en el mercado accionario, identificando la respuesta diferenciada ante escenarios de alta y baja volatilidad.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosalinda Arriaga Navarrete. & Miriam Sosa Castro. & Abigail Rodríguez Nava., 2020. "Impactos monetarios sobre la rentabilidad del mercado accionario en México: Un análisis de cambio de régimen Markoviano. (Monetary Impacts on the Mexican Stock Market Returns: A Markov Switching Appro," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 187-216, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxix:y:2020:i:2:p:187-216
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política Monetaria; Mercado accionario; MS-VAR; Volatilidad financiera;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

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