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A Evolução da Carga Tributária Bruta Brasileira no Período 1995-2007: Tamanho, Composição e Especificações Econométricas Agregadas

  • Cláudio Hamilton dos Santos
  • Márcio Bruno Ribeiro
  • Sérgio Wulff Gobetti
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    Este trabalho discute a evolução dinâmica do tamanho e da composição da carga tributária bruta brasileira (CTBB) no período 1995-2007 e apresenta várias especificações econométricas (lineares e não-lineares) para esta última variável no período em questão. Nossa principal conclusão – corroborada tanto pela análise dinâmica da composição da CTBB quanto por vários dos exercícios econométricos realizados – é que o processo de elevação da CTBB no período pós-real parece ter tido dois “momentos” básicos, quais sejam: i) um primeiro momento no período (1998- 2003), onde a elevação da CTBB se deu por meio de uma tributação mais pesada sobre as empresas estatais e da criação de novos impostos e/ou a majoração das alíquotas de impostos existentes; e ii) um segundo momento no período 2004-2007 onde a elevação da CTBB parece estar relacionada a um aumento da lucratividade das empresas e da formalização da economia (e do mercado de trabalho, em particular) associados a um novo (e ainda pouco compreendido) ciclo de crescimento econômico. This article discusses the dynamics of both the size and the composition of the Brazilian aggregate tax burden (BATB) in the 1995-2007 period and presents several (linear and non-linear) econometric specifications for this last variable. Our main conclusion – based both on the analysis of the dynamics of the composition of the BATB and on several of the econometric exercises presented – is that the decade-long increase of the BATB can be divided in two “regimes”, i.e. i) a first regime in the 1998-2003 (crisis) period in which the increase in the BATB was achieved through higher taxation of state-owned enterprises and the creation of new taxes and/or increases in existing taxes; and ii) a second regime in the 2004-2007 period in which the increase in the BATB seems to be related to an increase in firms’ profits and in the degree of formalization of the overall economy (and of the labor market in particular) associated with a new (and still not quite well understood) period of economic growth.

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    Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1350.

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    Length: 51 pages
    Date of creation: Aug 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1350
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    1. Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Spurious rejections by cointegration tests induced by structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1117-1121.
    2. Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2003. "Medium-Size Macroeconomic Model for the Brazilian Economy," Working Papers Series 64, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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    5. Nurun N. Choudhry, 1979. "Measuring the Elasticity of Tax Revenue: A Divisia Index Approach (Mesure de l'élasticité automatique des recettes fiscales: une méthode dérivée de l'indice Divisia) (Medición de la elasticidad ," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 87-122, March.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    7. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    8. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    9. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
    10. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    12. Leybourne, Stephen J. & C. Mills, Terence & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 191-203, August.
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