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Crude oil price determinants

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  • Möbert, Jochen

Abstract

Based on monthly observations, I specify an econometric model capturing the driving forces behind the crude oil price series in recent years. A large set of covariates, such as supply and demand variables as well as futures market variables, is used to test the impact on the crude oil price. Current price movements are a result of scarce refining capacity and speculators betting on higher prices. The results also question OPEC's market power.

Suggested Citation

  • Möbert, Jochen, 2007. "Crude oil price determinants," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 186, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:darddp:dar_35713
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    Cited by:

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    3. He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
    4. Dacio Villarreal-Samaniego, 2021. "The dynamics of oil prices, COVID-19, and exchange rates in five emerging economies in the atypical first quarter of 2020," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 37(158), pages 17-27, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crude oil market; Econometric modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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