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The NAIRU and Informality in the Mexican Labor Market

Author

Listed:
  • Aguilar-Argaez Ana María
  • Alcaraz Carlo
  • Ramírez Claudia
  • Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso

Abstract

The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is not directly observable and the presence of informal workers imposes an additional challenge in its estimation. Countries with large informal sectors, traditional measures might not depict labor slack properly, as it has the wage flexibility needed to incorporate formal workers that cannot find a formal job. In this paper, we present an estimation of the traditional NAIRU for Mexico and an alternative measure that includes informality as an indicator of labor underutilization. We find that both measures of NAIRU and the associated labor market slack indicators follow similar patterns over time. However, the slack estimated with the indicator that includes informality seems to predict inflationary pressures more accurately when the unemployment gap is close to zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguilar-Argaez Ana María & Alcaraz Carlo & Ramírez Claudia & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso, 2020. "The NAIRU and Informality in the Mexican Labor Market," Working Papers 2020-09, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2020-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Informality; NAIRU; Business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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