The January Effect across Volatility Regimes
Using a Markov regime switching model, this article presents evidence on the well-known January effect on stock returns. The specification allows a distinction to be drawn between two regimes, one with high volatility and other with low volatility. We obtain a time-varying January effect that is, in general, positive and significant in both volatility regimes. However, this effect is larger in the high volatility regime. In sharp contrast with most previous literature we find two major results: i) the January effect exists for all size portfolios. ii) the negative correlation between the magnitude of the January effect and the size of portfolios fails across volatility regimes. Moreover, our evidence supports a decline in the January effect for all size portfolios except the smallest, for which it is even larger.
|Date of creation:||31 Dec 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ugr.es/local/teoriahe
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
- Laura T. Starks & Li Yong & Lu Zheng, 2006. "Tax-Loss Selling and the January Effect: Evidence from Municipal Bond Closed-End Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 3049-3067, December.
- Bing Zhang & Xindan Li, 2006. "Do Calendar Effects Still Exist in the Chinese Stock Markets?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 151-163.
- Chien, Chin-Chen & Lee, Cheng-few & Wang, Andrew M. L., 2002. "A note on stock market seasonality: The impact of stock price volatility on the application of dummy variable regression model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-162.
- Al-Khazali, Osamah M., 2001. "Does the January effect exist in high-yield bond market?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 71-80.
- Emilios Galariotis, 2004. "Sources of contrarian profits and return predictability in emerging markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1027-1034.
- Juan Rendon & William Ziemba, 2007. "Is the January effect still alive in the futures markets?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 381-396, September.
- Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2007.
"Revisiting calendar anomalies in Asian stock markets using a stochastic dominance approach,"
Journal of Multinational Financial Management,
Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 125-141, April.
- Lean Hooi Hooi & Wong Wing Keung & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Revisiting Calender Anomolies in Asian Stock Markets Using a Stochastic Dominance Approach," Monash Economics Working Papers 16/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
- Dimitar Tonchev & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2004. "Calendar effects in Eastern European financial markets: evidence from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1035-1043.
- Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October.
- Wessel Marquering & Johan Nisser & Toni Valla, 2006. "Disappearing anomalies: a dynamic analysis of the persistence of anomalies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 291-302.
- Dongcheol Kim, 2006. "On the Information Uncertainty Risk and the January Effect," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 2127-2162, July.
- Cooper, Michael J. & McConnell, John J. & Ovtchinnikov, Alexei V., 2006. "The other January effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 315-341, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gra:wpaper:07/04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Angel Solano Garcia.)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.