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Historical Evolution of Monthly Anomalies in International Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Alex Plastun

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine)

  • Xolani Sibande

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

  • Mark E. Wohar

    (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska; USA and School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK)

Abstract

This paper is a comprehensive investigation of the evolution of various monthly anomalies (January effect, December effect, and the Mark Twain effect) in the US stock market for its entire history. This is done using various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student’s t-test, ANOVA, the Mann-Whitney test) and a trading simulation approach). To confirm our results we extended the analysis to the UK, Japan, Canada, France, Switzerland, Germany and Italy stock markets. The results indicate that the January effect was most prevalent in the US and that the December effect and the Mark Twain effect were never prevalent in the US. This result was confirmed in other markets as well. The January effect was most prevalent in the middle of the 20th century but has since disappeared. Furthermore, the January effect provided exploitable profit opportunities. Our results are consistent and add to the existing literature through the use of a complete history of the US market. Overall, the US stock market is consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Plastun & Xolani Sibande & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Historical Evolution of Monthly Anomalies in International Stock Markets," Working Papers 201950, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201950
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Calendar Anomalies; Month of the Year Effect; Stock Market; Efficient Market Hypothesis; January Effect; December Effect; Mark Twain Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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