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On the Information Uncertainty Risk and the January Effect


  • Dongcheol Kim

    (Korea University Business School)


I provide a risk-based rational explanation for the seasonal regularity of January in stock returns by suggesting a common risk factor related to the information uncertainty caused by earnings volatility. When the two-factor model with the market risk factor and this common risk factor is used, there is a remarkable improvement in explaining the January effect. With the adjustment of raw returns for risk through this two-factor model, the systematic pattern in the residual returns across firm size disappears. This risk factor also dominates the other risk factors in explaining the cross section of stock returns in January.

Suggested Citation

  • Dongcheol Kim, 2006. "On the Information Uncertainty Risk and the January Effect," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 2127-2162, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:79:y:2006:i:4:p:2127-2162

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Garcia, Rene & Luger, Richard & Renault, Eric, 2003. "Empirical assessment of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 49-83.
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    6. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
    7. René Garcia & Eric Ghysels & Éric Renault, 2004. "The Econometrics of Option Pricing," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-04, CIRANO.
    8. Day, Theodore E. & Lewis, Craig M., 1988. "The behavior of the volatility implicit in the prices of stock index options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 103-122, October.
    9. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    10. Bakshi, Gurdip S. & Zhiwu, Chen, 1997. "An alternative valuation model for contingent claims," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 123-165, April.
    11. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Dongcheol & Na, Haejung, 2016. "The forecast dispersion anomaly revisited: Time-series forecast dispersion and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 37-53.
    2. Betty Agnani & Henry Aray, 2011. "The January effect across volatility regimes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 947-953.
    3. Sun, Qian & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2010. "Risk and the January effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 965-974, May.
    4. Kim, Soon-Ho & Kim, Dongcheol & Shin, Hyun-Soo, 2012. "Evaluating asset pricing models in the Korean stock market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 198-227.

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