IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pke/wpaper/pkwp2002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Secular stagnation and core-periphery uneven development in post-crisis eurozone

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Botta
  • Ben Tippet

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse secular stagnation in the eurozone. We adopt a core-periphery perspective, and analyse whether the 2007-2008 financial crisis triggered off diverging dynamics in the growth potential of core and peripheral eurozone countries. We find that secular stagnation affects the whole eurozone, but is a much more serious concern in peripheral countries. Among the components of potential output, the NAIRU shows a worrisome diverging evolution since 2008. It has remained broadly constant in the core whilst doubling in the periphery. We find that the pronounced increase in the NAIRU in the periphery is strongly related to demand-side factors such as investment demand and fiscal consolidation rather than rigid labour market institutions. The negative effect that fiscal contractions may have on the NAIRU is a novel theoretical contribution of this paper. In line with these findings, we argue that reforms in the eurozone should focus on the creation of macroeconomic institutions ensuring convergence in financial and macroeconomic conditions among member countries rather than on the generalised deregulation of labour markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Botta & Ben Tippet, 2020. "Secular stagnation and core-periphery uneven development in post-crisis eurozone," Working Papers PKWP2002, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
  • Handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.postkeynesian.net/downloads/working-papers/PKWP2002.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2017. "Is Europe disintegrating? Macroeconomic divergence, structural polarization, trade and fragility," Economics working papers 2017-15, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    2. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    3. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra, 2014. "A Model of Secular Stagnation," NBER Working Papers 20574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    5. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
    6. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2020. "Structural change in times of increasing openness: assessing path dependency in European economic integration," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1467-1495, November.
    7. Lawrence H. Summers, 2015. "Demand Side Secular Stagnation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 60-65, May.
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    9. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    10. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 1995. "What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 634-647, September.
    11. Alberto Botta, 2014. "Structural asymmetries at the roots of the eurozone crisis: what's new for industrial policy in the EU?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(269), pages 169-216.
    12. Hartmann, Dominik & Guevara, Miguel R. & Jara-Figueroa, Cristian & Aristarán, Manuel & Hidalgo, César A., 2017. "Linking Economic Complexity, Institutions, and Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 75-93.
    13. Andrea Bassanini & Romain Duval, 2006. "Employment Patterns in OECD Countries: Reassessing the Role of Policies and Institutions," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 35, OECD Publishing.
    14. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "The legacy of the Eurozone crisis and how to overcome it," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 147-155.
    15. Grégory Claeys, 2016. "Low long-term rates- bond bubble or symptom of secular stagnation?," Policy Contributions 16625, Bruegel.
    16. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    17. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2006. "Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply and Economic Growth," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 319-336.
    18. Alberto Bagnai & Arsène Rieber, 2019. "Killing two birds with one currency: Income and fiscal policies in a growth model of a currency union," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 274-298, April.
    19. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8, Sciences Po.
    20. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2017. "Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation: An Empirical Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(6), pages 1221-1238, November.
    21. James D. Hamilton & Ethan S. Harris & Jan Hatzius & Kenneth D. West, 2016. "The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present, and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 660-707, November.
    22. Roger E. Backhouse & Mauro Boianovsky, 2016. "Secular stagnation: The history of a macroeconomic heresy," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 946-970, November.
    23. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    24. Nicholas Crafts, 2017. "Is Slow Economic Growth the ‘New Normal’ for Europe?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 283-297, September.
    25. Laurence M. Ball, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Alberto Botta, 2014. "Structural Asymmetries at the Roots of the Eurozone Crisis: What’s New for Industrial Policy in the EU?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_794, Levy Economics Institute.
    27. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684, Sciences Po.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    2. Andrea Borsato, 2021. "An Agent-based Model for Secular Stagnation in the USA: Theory and Empirical Evidence," LEM Papers Series 2021/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up: Matching The Historical Evidence With A Multi-Country Agent-Based Model," Sciences Po publications 18/2020, Sciences Po.
    4. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2017. "When more flexibility yields more fragility: The microfoundations of Keynesian aggregate unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 162-186.
    5. José Alves & Sandro Morgado, 2022. "Secular Stagnation: Is Immigration part of the solution?," Working Papers REM 2022/0212, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Francesco Furlanetto & Ørjan Robstad & Pål Ulvedal & Antoine Lepetit, 2020. "Estimating hysteresis effects," Working Paper 2020/13, Norges Bank.
    7. Gamberoni, Elisa. & Uexküll, Erik von. & Weber, Sebastian., 2010. "The role of openness and labour market institutions for employment dynamics during economic crises," ILO Working Papers 994618973402676, International Labour Organization.
    8. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "Winter is possibly not coming: Mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Francesco Lamperti & Mariana Mazzucato & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2021. "Mission-Oriented Policies and the “Entrepreneurial State” at Work: An Agent-Based Exploration," Working Papers hal-03300295, HAL.
    10. Luca Nunziata, 2005. "Institutions and Wage Determination: a Multi‐country Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 435-466, August.
    11. Luca Eduardo Fierro & Alessandro Caiani & Alberto Russo, 2021. "Automation, job polarisation, and structural change," Working Papers 2021/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    12. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Giovanni Dosi & Richard B. Freeman & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "The Impact of Deunionization on the Growth and Dispersion of Productivity and Pay," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    14. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.
    15. Váry, Miklós, 2021. "The long-run real effects of monetary shocks: Lessons from a hybrid post-Keynesian-DSGE-agent-based menu cost model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    16. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," Working Papers hal-03242369, HAL.
    17. Dew-Becker, Ian & Gordon, Robert J, 2008. "The Role of Labour Market Changes in the Slowdown of European Productivity Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 6722, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Jacopo Bonchi & Francesco Simone Lucidi, 2020. "How Low Interest Rates Discern the Bubbles Nature: Leveraged vs Unleveraged Bubble," Working Papers 12/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    19. Giovanni Dosi & Federico Riccio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2022. "Specialize or diversify? And in What? Trade composition, quality of specialization and persistent growth," LEM Papers Series 2022/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2019. "What if supply-side policies are not enough? The perverse interaction of flexibility and austerity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 360-388.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secular stagnation; uneven development; core-periphery; eurozone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pksggea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jo Michell (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pksggea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.