IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pke/wpaper/pkwp2002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Secular stagnation and core-periphery uneven development in post-crisis eurozone

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Botta
  • Ben Tippet

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse secular stagnation in the eurozone. We adopt a core-periphery perspective, and analyse whether the 2007-2008 financial crisis triggered off diverging dynamics in the growth potential of core and peripheral eurozone countries. We find that secular stagnation affects the whole eurozone, but is a much more serious concern in peripheral countries. Among the components of potential output, the NAIRU shows a worrisome diverging evolution since 2008. It has remained broadly constant in the core whilst doubling in the periphery. We find that the pronounced increase in the NAIRU in the periphery is strongly related to demand-side factors such as investment demand and fiscal consolidation rather than rigid labour market institutions. The negative effect that fiscal contractions may have on the NAIRU is a novel theoretical contribution of this paper. In line with these findings, we argue that reforms in the eurozone should focus on the creation of macroeconomic institutions ensuring convergence in financial and macroeconomic conditions among member countries rather than on the generalised deregulation of labour markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Botta & Ben Tippet, 2020. "Secular stagnation and core-periphery uneven development in post-crisis eurozone," Working Papers PKWP2002, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
  • Handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.postkeynesian.net/downloads/working-papers/PKWP2002.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2020
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Bagnai & Arsène Rieber, 2019. "Killing two birds with one currency: Income and fiscal policies in a growth model of a currency union," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 274-298, April.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    3. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4h9cnu4n2k8, Sciences Po.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2017. "Equilibrium Real Interest Rates and Secular Stagnation: An Empirical Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(6), pages 1221-1238, November.
    5. G Dosi & M C Pereira & A Roventini & M E Virgillito, 2018. "Causes and consequences of hysteresis: aggregate demand, productivity, and employment," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(6), pages 1015-1044.
    6. Roger E. Backhouse & Mauro Boianovsky, 2016. "Secular stagnation: The history of a macroeconomic heresy," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 946-970, November.
    7. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:45:p:5-59 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    9. Beck, Nathaniel & Katz, Jonathan N., 1995. "What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 634-647, September.
    10. Nicholas Crafts, 2017. "Is Slow Economic Growth the ‘New Normal’ for Europe?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 283-297, September.
    11. Alberto Botta, 2014. "Structural asymmetries at the roots of the eurozone crisis: what's new for industrial policy in the EU?," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(269), pages 169-216.
    12. Laurence M. Ball, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    14. Alberto Botta, 2014. "Structural Asymmetries at the Roots of the Eurozone Crisis: What’s New for Industrial Policy in the EU?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_794, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "The legacy of the Eurozone crisis and how to overcome it," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 147-155.
    16. Grégory Claeys, 2016. "Low long-term rates- bond bubble or symptom of secular stagnation?," Policy Contributions 16625, Bruegel.
    17. Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "Causes et consequences of hysteresis : aggregate demand, productivity and employment," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/hiaqa97n684, Sciences Po.
    18. Amitava Krishna Dutt, 2006. "Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply and Economic Growth," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 319-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    2. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up: Matching The Historical Evidence With A Multi-Country Agent-Based Model," Sciences Po publications 18/2020, Sciences Po.
    3. Hoxha, Sergei & Kleinknecht, Alfred, 2020. "When labour market rigidities are useful for innovation. Evidence from German IAB firm-level data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(7).
    4. Popoyan, Lilit & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea, 2020. "Winter is possibly not coming: Mitigating financial instability in an agent-based model with interbank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Matteo Deleidi & Walter Paternesi Meloni & Antonella Stirati, 2020. "Tertiarization, productivity and aggregate demand: evidence-based policies for European countries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1429-1465, November.
    6. Luca Nunziata, 2005. "Institutions and Wage Determination: a Multi‐country Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 435-466, August.
    7. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2018. "Hysteresis and persistent long-term unemployment: the American Beveridge Curve of the Great Depression and World War II," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(1), pages 127-152, January.
    8. Francesco Lamperti & Valentina Bosetti & Andrea Roventini & Massimo Tavoni & Tania Treibich, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," LEM Papers Series 2021/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Giovanni Dosi & Richard B. Freeman & Marcelo C. Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "The Impact of Deunionization on the Growth and Dispersion of Productivity and Pay," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2020-05, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    10. Manfred Füllsack & Simon Plakolb & Georg Jäger, 0. "Predicting regime shifts in social systems modelled with agent-based methods," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-23.
    11. Bruno Amable & Donatella Gatti & Jan Schumacher, 2006. "Welfare-State Retrenchment: The Partisan Effect Revisited," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 426-444, Autumn.
    12. Furceri, Davide & Mourougane, Annabelle, 2012. "The effect of financial crises on potential output: New empirical evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 822-832.
    13. Echavarría-Soto, Juan José & López, Enrique & Ocampo, Sergio & Rodríguez-Niño, Norberto, 2012. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 18, pages 753-794, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Camille Logeay & Silke Tober, 2003. "Time-Varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area," Economics Working Papers 024, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    15. Odile Chagny & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2002. "The equilibrium rate of unemployment : a theoretical discussion and an empirical evaluation for six OECD countries," Working Papers hal-01027421, HAL.
    16. Heimberger, Philipp & Kapeller, Jakob & Schütz, Bernhard, 2017. "The NAIRU determinants: What’s structural about unemployment in Europe?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 883-908.
    17. Beissinger, Thomas, 2003. "Strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa : eine Bestandsaufnahme (Structural unemployment in Europe * an inventory)," Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 36(4), pages 411-427.
    18. Eckhard Hein & Daniel Detzer, 2015. "Post-Keynesian Alternative Policies to Curb Macroeconomic Imbalances in the Euro Area," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 217-236, June.
    19. Yu‐Fu Chen & Dennis Snower & Gylfi Zoega, 2003. "Labour‐market Institutions and Macroeconomic Shocks," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(2), pages 247-270, June.
    20. Bozani, Vasiliki & Drydakis, Nick, 2011. "Studying the NAIRU and its Implications," IZA Discussion Papers 6079, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secular stagnation; uneven development; core-periphery; eurozone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jo Michell). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pksggea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.