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Secular stagnation: The history of a macroeconomic heresy

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  • Roger E. Backhouse
  • Mauro Boianovsky

Abstract

The paper presents a history of the concept of “secular stagnation”, from Alvin Hansen in the 1930s and 1940s to its recent revival by Larry Summers. We examine Hansen's ideas and those of young economists associated with him, notably Evsey Domar, Everett Hagen, Benjamin Higgins, Alan Sweezy, and Paul Samuelson, who were the economists who kept the doctrine alive in the 1950s and to whom Summers and others taking up the idea recently turned. Their ideas are contrasted with the theories of stagnation associated with Josef Steindl and Joseph Schumpeter. It is a label for a historical thesis about the American economy, which, initially seen as distinct from Keynes General Theory, came to be seen as a theoretical proposition based on Keynesian theory. It is argued that the idea of secular stagnation had a political dimension, connected to the New Deal and the Cold War and changing conceptions of economic maturity.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger E. Backhouse & Mauro Boianovsky, 2016. "Secular stagnation: The history of a macroeconomic heresy," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 946-970, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eujhet:v:23:y:2016:i:6:p:946-970
    DOI: 10.1080/09672567.2016.1192842
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rostow, W. W., 1998. "The Great Population Spike and After: Reflections on the 21st Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195116915.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fèvre, Raphaël, 2021. "The Madman and the Economist(s): Georges Bataille and François Perroux as French Critiques of the Marshall Plan," OSF Preprints 6hnvk, Center for Open Science.
    2. Davide Gualerzi, 2020. "Secular Stagnation Revisited," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 55-79, June.
    3. Alberto Botta & Ben Tippet, 2020. "Secular stagnation and core-periphery uneven development in post-crisis eurozone," Working Papers PKWP2002, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    5. Andrea Borsato, 2021. "Does the Secular Stagnation hypothesis match with data? Evidence from USA," Working Papers of BETA 2021-11, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    6. Baldi, Guido & Lange, Alexander, 2019. "The Interest Rate Sensitivity of Investment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 173-190.
    7. Fèvre, Raphaël, 2019. "Georges Bataille, François Perroux and French Critiques of the Marshall Plan," OSF Preprints acb6z, Center for Open Science.
    8. José Alves & Sandro Morgado, 2022. "Secular Stagnation: Is Immigration part of the solution?," Working Papers REM 2022/0212, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    11. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2020. "Discussing Secular Stagnation: A case for freeing good ideas from theoretical constraints?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 288-297.
    12. Michalis Nikiforos, 2020. "Demand, Distribution, Productivity, Structural Change, and (Secular?) Stagnation," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_945, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Gilles Dufrenot & Meryem Rhouzlane, 2018. "Secular Stagnation: New Challenges for the Industrialized Countries in the 21st Century," AMSE Working Papers 1818, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    14. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2019. "A critical analysis of the secular stagnation theory," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0245, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    15. Thies Clifford F., 2021. "Expectations of a Post-Wwii Depression," Studia Historiae Oeconomicae, Sciendo, vol. 39(1), pages 145-162, December.
    16. Knolle, Julia, 2020. "Prosperity in a Low Interest Environment," MPRA Paper 104332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "Could an economy get stuck in a rational pessimism bubble? The case of Japan," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/13, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    18. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2019. "Deglobalization 2.0," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 18560.
    19. Di Bucchianico, Stefano, 2021. "Inequality, household debt, ageing and bubbles: A model of demand-side Secular Stagnation," IPE Working Papers 160/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

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