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Could an economy get stuck on a rational pessimism sunspot path? The case of Japan

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  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai
  • Meenagh, David
  • Minford, Patrick

Abstract

Developed economies have experienced slower growth since the 2008 financial crisis, creating fears of “secular stagnation.” Rational expectations models have forward-looking sunspot solutions, which could cause this; here we investigate the case of Japan. We show that a New Keynesian model with a weak equilibrium growth path driven by pessimism sunspot belief shocks matches Japanese economic behaviour. Another possibility is a conventional model where productivity growth has simply slowed down for unknown reasons. Nevertheless, a welfare-optimising approach implies fiscal policy should commit to eliminating the potential sunspot while being prepared to revert to normal policy if inflation rises.

Suggested Citation

  • Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2025. "Could an economy get stuck on a rational pessimism sunspot path? The case of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:101:y:2025:i:c:s1042443125000320
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102142
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    Keywords

    Secular stagnation; Pessimism sunspot; Indirect inference; DSGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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