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Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy

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  • Taisuke Nakata
  • Sebastian Schmidt

Abstract

We study optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy in a New Keynesian model where occasional declines in agents' confidence give rise to persistent liquidity trap episodes. Insights from widely studied fundamental-driven liquidity traps are not a useful guide for enhancing welfare in this model. Raising the inflation target, appointing an inflation-conservative central banker, or allowing for the use of government spending as an additional stabilization tool can exacerbate deflationary pressures and demand deficiencies during the liquidity trap episodes. However, appointing a policy-maker who is sufficiently less concerned with government spending stabilization than society eliminates expectations-driven liquidity traps.

Suggested Citation

  • Taisuke Nakata & Sebastian Schmidt, 2022. "Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Implications for Monetary and Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 68-103, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:14:y:2022:i:4:p:68-103
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190228
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    Cited by:

    1. Michau, Jean-Baptiste, 2025. "Fiscal policy under secular stagnation: An optimal pump-priming strategy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    2. Alessandro Piergallini, 2024. "Fiscal Stimulus of Last Resort," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1479-1514, September.
    3. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Billi, Roberto & Galí, Jordi & Nakov, Anton, 2024. "Optimal monetary policy with r∗<0," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Dominik Hecker & Maik Wolters & Maik H. Wolters, 2025. "Nonlinear Estimation of a New Keynesian Model with Endogenous Inflation De-Anchoring," CESifo Working Paper Series 12280, CESifo.
    6. Yunjong Eo & Nigel Mcclung, 2025. "Determinacy and E‐Stability with Interest Rate Rules at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(4), pages 951-979, June.
    7. Tom D. Holden, 2024. "Robust Real Rate Rules," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1551, September.
    8. Hills, Timothy S. & Nakata, Taisuke & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Effective lower bound risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Christoffel, Kai & Farkas, Mátyás, 2025. "Managing the risks of inflation expectation de-anchoring," Working Paper Series 3082, European Central Bank.
    10. Özcan, Gülserim & Traficante, Guido, 2024. "Optimal robust monetary and fiscal policy under uncertainty on the lower bound," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Piergallini, Alessandro, 2022. "Average inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    12. Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2020. "The Role of Nonlinearity in Indeterminate Models: An Application to Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-023, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    13. Ryan Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2023. "Unanticipated and Backward-Looking: Deflations and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(4), pages 41-83, October.
    14. He Nie & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2023. "The promises (and perils) of control-contingent forward guidance," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 77-98, July.
    15. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2022. "The unbearable lightness of equilibria in a low interest rate environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-17.
    16. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2025. "Could an economy get stuck on a rational pessimism sunspot path? The case of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    17. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles & McClung, Nigel, 2023. "Coherence without rationality at the zero lower bound," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    18. Chunbing Cai & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2023. "Simple Analytics of the Government Investment Multiplier," Papers 2302.11212, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    19. Pablo Cuba-Borda & Sanjay R. Singh, 2024. "Understanding Persistent ZLB: Theory and Assessment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 389-416, July.
    20. Chunbing Cai & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup & Zhongxi Zheng, 2025. "Endogenous Persistence at the Effective Lower Bound," Papers 2501.06473, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    21. Nicolas Caramp & Sanjay R Singh, 2023. "Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2822-2879.
    22. Aleksandr Matveev, 2025. "Assessment of Portfolio Credit Risk under Dynamic Default Correlation," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(1), pages 129-142, March.
    23. Haochun Ma & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2025. "Clearing Up the Effective Lower Bound Morass," Papers 2511.04782, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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