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Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps

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  • Nicolas Caramp
  • Sanjay R Singh

Abstract

Safe asset shortages can expose an economy to liquidity traps. The nature of these traps is determined by the cyclicality of the bond premium. A counter-cyclical bond premium opens the possibility of expectations-driven liquidity traps in which small issuances of government debt crowd out private debt and reduce output. In contrast, when the bond premium is pro-cyclical and the economy is in a liquidity trap, government debt is expansionary. In the data, we find evidence of a counter-cyclical bond premium. Large interventions can prevent the emergence of self-fulfilling traps, but they require sufficient fiscal capacity. In a quantitative model calibrated to the Great Recession, a promise to increase the government debt-to-GDP ratio by 20 percentage points precludes the possibility of self-fulfilling traps.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Caramp & Sanjay R Singh, 2023. "Bond Premium Cyclicality and Liquidity Traps," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2822-2879.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:6:p:2822-2879.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdad003
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Geromichalos & Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2022. "The Liquidity-Augmented Model of Macroeconomic Aggregates: A New Monetarist DSGE Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 134-167, July.
    2. Wang, Yijing, 2022. "A Liquidity-based Resolution to the Dividend Puzzle," MPRA Paper 115560, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Marco Cozzi, 2024. "An Aggregation-Consistent Implementation of the Hamilton Filter," Department Discussion Papers 2401, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    4. Wolf, Martin & Fornaro, Luca, 2021. "Monetary Policy in the Age of Automation," CEPR Discussion Papers 16416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Wang, Lei & Sha, Yifan & Ding, Lili & Zhao, Zhongchao, 2024. "Risk mitigation strategies in urban investment bonds: Insights from local government implicit debt governance," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 607-618.
    6. Diego Leal Gonzalez & Bryan Stanhouse & Duane Stock & Xin Yue Zhou, 2025. "Nonlinear structural estimation of corporate bond liquidity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 799-827, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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