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La persistance dans les marchés financiers

  • Dominique Guegan

    ()

    (Axe Finance - CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS)

Dans ce papier nous précisons la notion de long terme, son impact sur les marchés et les différentes approches pour la mesurer. Nous montrons l'importance d'une mesure robuste en terme de prévisions et de calcul des risques. Après une description des différents concepts de long terme, nous introduisons plusieurs modèles dont les processus de Gegenbauer. La gestion des risques financiers ou de crédit à partir des copules est abordée.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) with number halshs-00179269.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00179269
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00179269
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  1. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
  2. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  3. Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Moments of Markov Switching Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp323, Financial Markets Group.
  4. Robinson, P. M., 2001. "The memory of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 195-218, April.
  5. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  6. Dominique Guegan & Jing Zhang, 2010. "Change analysis of a dynamic copula for measuring dependence in multivariate financial data," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00368334, HAL.
  7. van den Goorbergh, Rob W.J. & Genest, Christian & Werker, Bas J.M., 2005. "Bivariate option pricing using dynamic copula models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 101-114, August.
  8. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
  9. repec:cep:stiecm:/2001/410 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
  11. Chen, Chung & Tiao, George C, 1990. "Random Level-Shift Time Series Models, ARIMA Approximations, and Level-Shift Detection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 83-97, January.
  12. Smith, Aaron D., 2004. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 11974, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  13. Dominique Guegan & Stéphanie Rioublanc, 2005. "Regime switching models : real or spurious long memory ?," Post-Print halshs-00189208, HAL.
  14. Patton, Andrew J, 2001. "Modelling Time-Varying Exchange Rate Dependence Using the Conditional Copula," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt01q7j1s2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  15. Granger, Clive W.J. & Hyung, Namwon, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt4d60t4jh, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  16. van den Goorbergh, R.W.J. & Genest, C. & Werker, B.J.M., 2003. "Multivariate Option Pricing Using Dynamic Copula Models," Discussion Paper 2003-122, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  17. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  18. Dominique Guegan, 2003. "A prospective study of the k-factor Gegenbauer processes with heteroscedastic errors and an application to inflation rates," Post-Print halshs-00201314, HAL.
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