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La persistance dans les marchés financiers

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  • Dominique Guegan

    () (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Dans ce papier nous précisons la notion de long terme, son impact sur les marchés et les différentes approches pour la mesurer. Nous montrons l'importance d'une mesure robuste en terme de prévisions et de calcul des risques. Après une description des différents concepts de long terme, nous introduisons plusieurs modèles dont les processus de Gegenbauer. La gestion des risques financiers ou de crédit à partir des copules est abordée.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominique Guegan, 2007. "La persistance dans les marchés financiers," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00179269, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00179269 Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00179269
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    2. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
    3. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
    4. van den Goorbergh, R.W.J. & Genest, C. & Werker, B.J.M., 2003. "Multivariate Option Pricing Using Dynamic Copula Models," Discussion Paper 2003-122, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. D. Guegan & J. Zhang, 2010. "Change analysis of a dynamic copula for measuring dependence in multivariate financial data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 421-430.
    6. Smith, Aaron, 2005. "Level Shifts and the Illusion of Long Memory in Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 321-335, July.
    7. Patton, Andrew J, 2001. "Modelling Time-Varying Exchange Rate Dependence Using the Conditional Copula," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt01q7j1s2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    8. van den Goorbergh, Rob W.J. & Genest, Christian & Werker, Bas J.M., 2005. "Bivariate option pricing using dynamic copula models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 101-114, August.
    9. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
    10. Dominique Guegan, 2003. "A prospective study of the k-factor Gegenbauer processes with heteroscedastic errors and an application to inflation rates," Post-Print halshs-00201314, HAL.
    11. Dominique Guegan & Stéphanie Rioublanc, 2005. "Regime switching models : real or spurious long memory ?," Post-Print halshs-00189208, HAL.
    12. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    13. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 2013. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, pages 739-764.
    14. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
    15. Chen, Chung & Tiao, George C, 1990. "Random Level-Shift Time Series Models, ARIMA Approximations, and Level-Shift Detection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 83-97, January.
    16. Robinson, P. M., 2001. "The memory of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 195-218, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cyril Caillault, Dominique Guégan, 2009. "Forecasting VaR and Expected Shortfall Using Dynamical Systems: A Risk Management Strategy," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 6(1), pages 26-50, April.

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